| Based on the international ecological situation and the experience of environmental governance,the paid use and trading system of emission permits has become an important policy of pollution prevention and control in China.China actively tried to promote diversified trading patterns in pilot areas and constantly improve relevant systems.The paid use and trading system of emission permits has encouraged some low energy intensive production manufacturers shut down production actively,promoted the launch of energy conservation and environmental protection projects,accelerated the adjustment of industrial structure and improved the environmental quality.However,the emission permits trading system is still not mature in China.Although some pilot areas have launched local laws and regulations,the regulations related to the emission initial purchase system is not enough,only roughly outlined framework with local practical situation.The blind purchase planning of manufacturers in the primary market leads to the inactivity of the secondary trading market.The lack of research on the emission permits purchase planning and the evaluation tools of manufacturers’ behavior are the reasons for the dilemma of the current policy implementation.In order to further analyze the influence mechanism of the paid use of emission permits,and promote the optimization of macroscopic mechanism design.This paper constructed a relatively complete production and operation framework based on the analysis of the domestic and foreign research results.According to this framework,the emission permits purchase planning model is established.Using the method of nonlinear programming and the expected utility theory analyzed the emission twolevel trading market.And further using the mean variance model to study the decision-making of manufacturers with different risk preference under uncertain circumstances.Then the correlation between macro mechanism design and micro enterprise behavior is analyzed.The results show that:(1)Under the mechanism of paid use and trading of emission permits,the production decision of manufacturers,such as output and reduction,are related to the emission permits secondary trading market factors.For manufacturers,the optimization of production decision and emission permits purchase planning are two stages.Under the paid use system,manufacturers are bound to decide the amount of emission permits according to the output in advance.Because the amount of purchase permits will not only affect the quantity of emission permits required for production and trading,but also affect the final utility income of enterprises,the optimization of purchase planning is a part that manufacturers must consider in their business activities.(2)Rational manufacturers will make the optimal purchase planning according to the price difference between the two levels of emission permits market.Especially after considering the market transaction cost,manufacturers will compare the purchase price in the primary market with the marginal net profit and loss in the secondary trading market.If the price difference makes the manufacturers profitable,they will focus on emissions trading market to obtain higher efficiency.(3)Risk appetite will affect manufacturers deviating from the optimal decisionmaking behavior decision.In reality,most decision-making subjects are risk averse manufacturers,their decision-making is not only affected by market uncertainties,but also affected by the risk tolerance and the expected utility value.Therefore,manufacturers will be cautious in the market.In addition,under the situation of random product demand,the purchase planning of emission permits is not only related to the two levels of the emission permits market,but also affected by the product market.In a word,in the real situation,the decision makers of manufacturers should take the market factors of emission permits and the impact of product demand fluctuations into account when purchasing the emission permits. |
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