| A country(region)can realize the cross-sectional or inter-temporal distribution of heterogeneity risk through regional financial cooperation.When a heterogeneous output shock occurs,the country(region)can smooth the output heterogeneity fluctuation and isolate it from other countries(regions).The adverse impact on consumption is realized,consumption risk sharing is realized,and residents’ welfare is improved.Since the financial crisis in 1997,the East Asia region has actively sought regional financial cooperation.Through a series of measures such as the "Chiang Mai Initiative","Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization" and "Asian Bond Market Initiative",the level of financial cooperation in the East Asian region has been substantive.promote.At present,the increased uncertainty in the world economy caused by the intertwined changes in the century and the epidemic of the century is a challenge and an opportunity: it has injected new internal impetus into the East Asian region to seek further financial cooperation to improve the level of consumption risk sharing.Then,whether East Asia can establish a good consumption risk sharing mechanism,isolate the adverse effects of heterogeneous output shocks,and ensure a stable regional economic environment will be helpful for promoting the construction of regional multilateral mechanisms,regional economic recovery,and exploring regional governance mechanisms.important practical significance.In this context,this paper selects panel data of nine East Asian economies from1990 to 2020 to explore the level of consumption risk sharing in East Asia and the changes in the degree of income smoothing after incorporating the valuation effect.It is not completely transformed into the smoothing of final consumption;based on this phenomenon,this paper establishes a dynamic risk sharing identification channel model,conducts dynamic analysis on East Asian consumption risk sharing channels and studies the impact of valuation effects on other consumption risk sharing channels,and answers such as A series of problems,such as the differences in the timeliness of the response of different consumption risk sharing channels to heterogeneous output shocks,the dynamic role of each channel,and whether there is an alternative or complementary role between channels,overcome some of the limitations of previous static analysis.This paper first reviews and sorts out the relevant literature,including: research on consumption risk sharing level,research on consumption risk sharing mechanism and channels,dynamic analysis of consumption risk sharing channels,research on the influence between channels;Complete consumption risk sharing and incomplete consumption risk sharing,and conduct cross-border(regional)income smoothing mechanisms(corresponding to net factor income channels and valuation effect channels)and intertemporal consumption smoothing mechanisms(corresponding to credit market channels)for consumption risk sharing.Then,this paper reviews the stages of East Asian regional financial cooperation,and analyzes the current situation of East Asian financial integration by measuring East Asian financial openness and net external asset position.The correlation between consumption and income is measured,and a preliminary analysis of consumption risk sharing in East Asia is completed.Based on the above basis,this paper immediately selects the panel data of nine East Asian economies from 1990 to 2020,respectively,to include the valuation effect channels.The level and channels of consumption risk sharing in East Asia are empirically analyzed.Finally,the full text is summarized and policy suggestions are put forward.The main conclusions drawn from the empirical analysis in this paper are as follows:First,by measuring the level of risk sharing in East Asia,it is found that when only net factor income is considered as a channel for income smoothing,the level of income smoothing in East Asia is improved but limited,and the valuation effect is regarded as a part of "income".,after re-measurement of the income smoothing level,it is found that the income smoothing level of East Asia has improved significantly,indicating that the valuation effect has become the main channel for East Asia to achieve income smoothing.Then,after measuring the consumption risk sharing level in East Asia,it is found that the consumption risk sharing level in East Asia has been greatly improved,and it is highly synchronized with the trend of income smoothing level including the valuation effect,but its growth rate is much smaller than the increase in income smoothing level.,indicating that the income smoothing achieved through the valuation effect is not completely transformed into the smoothing of final consumption.Second,based on the consumption risk sharing channel identification model,this paper constructs a dynamic model incorporating the valuation effect channel,and examines the smooth dynamic process of output changes through various channels after the occurrence of output shocks: the impact of net factor income channels on output shocks The cumulative response is negative,indicating that this channel is not conducive to consumption risk sharing;the valuation effect can achieve consumption risk sharing in the short term,but over time,its function of consumption risk sharing has weakened;and the credit market The channel can play an obvious positive role in risk sharing in the first two periods,but through the cumulative impulse response,it is found that,like the net factor income channel,the credit market channel is not conducive to consumption risk sharing in the long run.Third,through the impulse response analysis of the traditional channel to the impact of the valuation effect channel,it explores the dynamic impact of the channel on the traditional channel when the valuation effect scale gradually increases,and finds that: the valuation effect channel has an impact on the net factor The influence of the income channel is not obvious,but according to the impulse response of the credit market channel to the valuation effect channel,the risk sharing effect brought by the valuation effect will be offset by the negative effect of the credit market.Fourth,after excluding Chinese Hong Kong and Singapore,taking the remaining seven economies as the research objects,it is found that the role of the net factor income channel has not changed significantly,while the credit market channel has played a major risk sharing function.It shows that Chinese Hong Kong and Singapore can share consumption risks to a greater extent through the valuation effect channel,while the remaining seven economies cannot enjoy the benefits brought by financial integration due to their low financial openness and valuation effect scale.Income smoothing income.Based on the above conclusions,this paper proposes policy recommendations for East Asia to deepen regional financial cooperation,optimize the structure of external assets and liabilities,and improve the degree of regional financial integration. |
