Research On The Impact Of Market Expectation On RMB Exchange Rate From The Perspective Of Settlement And Sale Exchange Rate

In recent years,with the continuous deepening of the marketization reform of the RMB exchange rate and the internationalization process of the RMB,the fluctuation of the onshore RMB exchange rate has gradually transited from government led to market regulation.However,at present,the onshore RMB has not been fully convertible and is still restricted by the foreign exchange settlement and sales system,so it is necessary to use the settlement and sales exchange rate to measure the exchange rate expectation of the onshore market.At the same time,when the RMB exchange rate is impacted by the external environment,the irrational expectations and herding effects emerging in the market will cause sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate.Therefore,in this context,this paper studies the impact of market expectations on the RMB exchange rate from the perspective of the settlement and sale exchange rate.In the first part,this paper introduces the research background and significance,and then summarizes the research content and methods,as well as the innovation points and deficiencies of this paper by summarizing the relevant literature.In the second part of the article,we first define the concept of variables and measurement indicators used in the article,and then analyze the mechanism of market expectations on the RMB exchange rate with the theory of expectations and exchange rate determination.The third part is the empirical analysis of the impact of market expectations on the RMB exchange rate.Based on the stability of time series variables,a VAR model is established to determine whether the current market expectations have an impact on the RMB exchange rate and the extent of their impact through impulse response and variance decomposition.The study found that after the cancellation of the mandatory foreign exchange settlement and sales system in 2014 and the 811 foreign exchange reform in 2015,the market is expected to have an impact on the RMB exchange rate.However,because there are still many restrictive policies in the current foreign exchange settlement and sales system and RMB exchange rate mechanism,the market expectation represented by the settlement and sales exchange rate has a low impact on the RMB exchange rate,which can also reflect that there is still some room for the current marketization of the RMB exchange rate in China.So the fourth part is based on the research conclusion of this paper,and this paper continues to discuss the countermeasures and suggestions to guide the market expectation to maintain the stability of the exchange rate and further expand the marketization reform of the RMB exchange rate under unexpected circumstances.