Research On The Influence Of Internal Control Quality On The Forecasting Behavior Of Securities Analysts

Securities analysts are the "lubricant" of the securities market and an important "strategist" for investors.Their main responsibility is to discover company value,make effective predictions,and guide the allocation of social resources.The essence of the forecasting behavior of securities analysts is to interpret and analyze the information of listed companies,and internal control is the institutional guarantee for the information quality of listed companies,and plays a key role in the information quality of listed companies.Obviously,the quality of internal control will also affect securities analysis.If the forecasting behavior of analysts has an impact,how does the quality of internal control affect the forecasting behavior and results of securities analysts? This thesis mainly discusses the effect and mechanism of the internal control quality on the forecasting behavior of securities analysts.This research helps to clarify the logical relationship between the quality of internal control and the forecasting behavior of securities analysts,enrich the decision-making system of securities analysts,and promote listing.High-quality development of companies and securities analysts.This thesis takes China’s A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2013 to 2020 as a sample,and through sorting out relevant domestic and foreign literature,studies the impact of internal control quality on the quality(accuracy and divergence)and forecasting behavior of securities analysts.The mechanism and specific impact of quantity(predicted report quantity),put forward the hypothesis of this thesis,and select the internal control index data of Dibo Company to measure the quality of internal control,and then use the panel fixed effect model and 2SLS regression to verify the content of the hypothesis,and further according to analysts The forecast differences of earnings per share are divided into overestimated groups and underestimated groups,and grouped exploration is carried out,followed by three methods of replacing explanatory variables,replacing explained variables and re-selecting sample years to conduct robustness tests,and then based on listing Heterogeneity analysis is carried out on the nature of company property rights,and then real earnings management indicators are selected to explore the impact mechanism between the two.Based on the above research,the following three conclusions are drawn:(1)The quality of internal control significantly affects the forecasting behavior of securities analysts,and plays a positive role.Using the panel fixed effect model for regression,whether or not control variables are added,the quality of internal control has an impact on securities analysis.Both the number and accuracy of analyst forecast reports have a significant positive enhancement effect,and significantly reduce the degree of divergence in securities analysts’ forecasts.After using instrumental variables to perform 2SLS regression,the results are still stable.At the same time,in the overvalued group of securities analysts,the quality of internal control plays a positive role in the quality and quantity of forecast behavior of securities analysts,and the effect is not significant in the undervalued group.(2)After dividing the sample according to the nature of property rights,it is found through empirical regression that the quality of internal control can only significantly affect securities analysts’ opinions on state-owned listed companies.(3)Through the intermediary mechanism inspection procedure,it is found that there is a transmission path of "internal control quality-real earnings management-securities analyst",the improvement of internal control quality reduces the company’s real earnings management,thus improving the securities analyst The forecast accuracy and the number of forecast reports reduce the divergence of forecasts by securities analysts.Finally,based on the research conclusions,this thesis puts forward reasonable suggestions from four aspects: listed companies,regulators,securities analysts and small and medium investors.