Research On Bond Default Risk Of Tianyu Group Based On KMV Model

Since the 1980 s,after a period of vigorous development of China’s bond market,not only the total issuance of corporate bonds has improved qualitatively,but also the number of freely active investors in the financial market has increased.However,with the major default of "11Super-Japanese Bonds" in 2014,there have been more and more incidents of substantial defaults on Chinese corporate bonds,and the intensive outbreak of bond default events has hindered the healthy development of my country’s bond market to a certain extent.Under this background,this paper selects the default case of Tianyu Digital,and uses the literature research method,case analysis method,qualitative and quantitative analysis method and comparative analysis method to study the default risk of "17 Tianshen 01" bond.Firstly,through the literature research method,the literature is combed from the three perspectives of bond default risk influencing factors,bond default risk measurement and bond default risk prevention,in order to understand the current situation of bond default risk research at home and abroad.Secondly,sort out the process and follow-up processing of Tianyu Digital’s bond default events,and conduct qualitative and quantitative analysis on the factors affecting its bond default risk from the macro level,the industry level and the company level.Thirdly,based on the sorting out of the basic ideas and assumptions of the KMV model,the KMV model is used to calculate the default distance of Tianyu Digital in each quarter of the past three years and draw a trend chart of the default distance.At the same time,the measurement results are compared and analyzed with the measurement results of industry and other risk measurement models,and it is found that the KMV model can forward-lookingly measure the size of the company’s bond default risk,and provide risk warning and decision-making basis for bond issuers.Finally,from the aspects of strategic planning,corporate governance,risk early warning and external environment response,it provides bond issuers with suggestions on the prevention of bond default risks.This paper makes an in-depth study of the bond default risk of typical subjects,which can not only promote bond issuers to enhance their awareness of bond default risk identification and improve their ability to prevent risks,but also help other companies in the Internet media industry to prevent risks.