The Analysis Of J Enterprise Investment Value Based On Cash Flow Discount Method And Real Option Method

In the "Health China 2030 Planning Outline",China clearly pointed out that we have to promote the implementation of the Health China plan,and then put forward the "14th Five-Year Plan" for a healthy China aging plan and other national initiatives in the field of health care.In this context,combined with the rapid development of science and technology,Internet medical companies have entered the public eye and gained wide popularity among investors in the market.However,the value of Internet healthcare companies is affected by their R&D and innovation capabilities,which makes it difficult for evaluators to value Internet healthcare companies reasonably,especially for innovative technology companies in the start-up and growth stages,which usually suffer losses due to heavy investment in R&D and difficulty in relying on R&D revenue in the short term.Traditional valuation methods cannot reasonably value these companies,so how to reasonably value these companies with such characteristics is the main purpose of this thesis,so this thesis selects J,a representative Internet medical company,as the research object to conduct an in-depth investment value analysis.From the perspective of enterprise life cycle,we first analyze the applicability and limitations of the current commonly used enterprise value assessment methods,and conduct a fundamental analysis of enterprise J to understand the current situation of the industry in which the enterprise is located and its operating and financial conditions,and determine its life cycle stage.At the same time,considering that the real value of innovative technology enterprises comes from the potential value brought by technological innovation and project investment in addition to the existing value brought by current operation,this thesis finally selects two methods to analyze the investment value of enterprise J,namely,the real option method alone and the combination model combining the discounted free cash flow method and the real option method.Then,the in-depth valuation calculation of enterprise J is conducted by the above two methods.The final analysis results show that the valuation results obtained by the combination of the discounted free cash flow method and the real option method have a smaller error rate of1.61%,which is in a reasonable valuation range.Moreover,with respect to the market price of enterprise J of 6.69/RMB share on the valuation base date,the valuation results obtained by the combination model of both the discounted free cash flow method and the real option method are higher than the market price of enterprise J on the valuation base date,so it is concluded that enterprise J is undervalued by the current market and investors can continue to pay attention to its price changes and choose the appropriate time to purchase it.In summary,based on the previous analysis,this thesis again verifies the reasonableness of the combined model using the discounted free cash flow method and the real option method to value the growth stage innovative technology enterprises through a case study,and points out the shortcomings of the current study,with a view to improving it in the subsequent study.