| Since the Belt and Road Initiative was first proposed,Central and Eastern European countries have become a crucial link in the Initiative due to their geographical location and economic and political background.After undergoing changes in different historical periods,including the early days of the founding of China and the collapse of the Soviet Union,China’s relations with Central and Eastern European Countries ushered in a new beginning in 2012.With the success of the first China-Central and Eastern European Summit,the China-Central and Eastern European "16+1" Cooperation mechanism was formally established.With the annual summit,The cooperation has deepened.With the accession of Greece in 2019,"16+1" Cooperation was formally expanded into "17+1" Cooperation,and China-Central and Eastern European Cooperation is gradually maturing.Central and Eastern European countries have many similarities and differences.In terms of commonality,Central and Eastern European countries have a small economy with a relatively low economic growth rate in recent years,relatively slow development of manufacturing industry,and increasingly prosperous intra-regional trade.But at the same time,the level of development and political camp of Central and Eastern European countries vary greatly.Therefore,cooperation with Central and Eastern European countries is complicated and needs to be tailored to local conditions.The trade facilitation level of Central and Eastern European countries is in the middle and upper reaches of the world.Since the cooperation was launched in 2012,trade between the two regions has been on the rise and the trade structure has also been adjusted."17+1" cooperation has achieved good results in economy and trade,connectivity and people-to-people exchanges,which are also the direction of future cooperation.On the other hand,"17+1" cooperation has been confronted with practical challenges from different sides.On the one hand,the EU and some Western countries,on the other hand,Central and Eastern European countries have different aspirations.Therefore,even though the cooperation has been developing well in recent years,there are still many problems,which need time and efforts to improve.The GTAP model is used to simulate the cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European countries in different fields to study the economic effects.The analysis shows that deepening cooperation in various fields is generally conducive to trade and macro economy of the participating countries,so as to achieve mutual benefit and win-win results.However,due to trade crowding out effect and other reasons,some industries may be negatively impacted,so we should pay attention to the development of the industry in cooperation.Through further analysis of the model,it is found that the simultaneous development of various measures will maximize the economic effect of cooperation and maximize its positive impact.Therefore,practical cooperation in multiple fields should be promoted in this process to achieve the optimal effect of cooperation.In addition,in addition to tariff reduction as a means of trade cooperation,the construction of connectivity and strengthening of cultural and people-to-people exchanges have a good role in promoting the economic and trade development of both sides,and even produce more effective results than tariff barrier reduction measures.Therefore,these areas should be strengthened in the future cooperation process. |
