An Empirical Analysis Of Trade Development Potential Of China And Central And Eastern European Countries In The Belt And Road

Since the beginning of the 21 st century,economic globalization has deepened.With the growing political and friendly relations between C hina and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe,the economic and trade development of both sides has reached a new level and trade exchanges are changing with each passing day.In terms of trade volume,in 2001,bilateral trade between China and Central Europe and Europe was only US $ 4.3 billion,and in 2011,it suddenly raised to US $ 52.9 billion,and in 2014,it reached a new high of US $ 60 billion.This paper first introduces the trade between C hina and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe,and then further analyzes the trade scale and structure characteristics of C hina and Central and Eastern European countries.It finds that China and Central and Eastern Europe trade structure is relatively simple,bilateral trade volume is concentrated in machine transportation equipment products on.The third chapter mainly analyzes the bilateral trade competition and the complementary relationship,the result shows that the bilateral trade competition is not strong,the trade is mainly reflected in the capital technology-intensive products,and the Central and Eastern European count ries in the primary product market has certain advantages,China should further tap the potential for trade.The fourth chapter of this paper constructs the trade gravity model,finds out the influencing factors of trade flow through 40 national data,and compares the actual trade flow and the forecast flow.The results show that C hina and Central and Eastern European countries have great trade potential.Finally,the Michely index shows that China and Central and Eastern European countries have more obvious trade transfer and creative potential.The transformation of these trade potentials into actual trade flows requires the Belt and Road construction.The focus should be on improving the level of trade facilitation,that is,to strengthen communication and cooperation mechanism,to unify trade policy standards,to develop standardized regulations,to improve logistics port efficiency and deepen financial cooperation.Finally,the conclusions of this paper,according to the specific issues put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.