| China’s agricultural risk is changing from natural risk to market risk.Agricultural product "Insurance+Futures" is an innovative financial tool to avoid market risks,which plays an important role in promoting China’s price mechanism reform,transferring agricultural product market risks and stabilizing farmers’ income.However,China’s agricultural product "Insurance+Futures"pilot started in 2016.Although different expansion modes have been explored in different regions,there are still exist some problems such as unreasonable premium subsidies,imperfect agricultural product futures market and unscientific pricing methods,and insurance pricing is the core factor.It is of great significance to study how to design the pricing mechanism of insurance contract reasonably and improve the "Insurance+Futures"model of agricultural productsFirstly,the basic operating mechanism and development status of "Insurance+Futures " of agricultural products are sorted out.The traditional agricultural product"Insurance+Futures"has some problems in the actual operation,such as single level of insurance guarantee,insufficient validation of the underlying asset futures market and unscientific target price setting.Secondly,in order to perfect the existing pricing mechanism,the existing pricing mechanism is improved from two aspects:designing five guarantee standard of insurance contract:80%,85%,90%,95%and 100%.A series of statistical test methods,such as VAR model,are used to verify the effectiveness of futures market,comprehensively measure the basis risk and further put forward the "futures price+basis" pricing method.the insurance premium rate before and after the improvement of pricing mechanism is empirically analyzed.Taking egg“Insurance+Futures”as an example,this paper uses Monte Carlo simulation method to calculate the premium rate of agricultural products price before and after the improvement of pricing mechanism under different guarantee standard.The following conclusions are drawn:there are great differences in premium rate under different guarantee standard;The higher the insurance level is,the lower the premium rate is.The improved pricing mechanism is more scientific and makes up the basis risk to a greater extent.Finally,based on the above analysis,suggestions are put forward:from the governm ent level,it is necessary to increase financial support,improve the relevant legal system norms,and improve the agricultural futures market;From the perspective of insurance companies,it is necessary to design insurance contracts reasonably,provide multiple protection standards and scientifically determine the premium rate to improve the overall protection level.The innovation of this paper mainly includes:(1)design insurance contracts with multiple standard of protection.The paper designs five levels of guarantee standards to provide more options for different types of agricultural business entities and disperse insurance companies’ compensation risks.(2)Improve the existing pricing mechanism.On the basis of verifying the effectiveness of the current futures price,the basis risk is comprehensively measured,and the pricing mechanism of " futures price+ basis" is proposed to improve the scientificity and accuracy of pricing.After that,the premium before and after the improvement of pricing mechanism is compared and analyzed by Monte Carlo simulation method. |
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