| Since the mid-20 th century,due to the frequent occurrence of global natural disasters and the intensification of climate change,agricultural production activities are facing increasing risks.Agricultural insurance is the most important risk management tool and it plays a very important role in dealing with agricultural risks.Due to the large differences in the development of agriculture and market economy in various countries,the level of agricultural insurance development between them is not the same,but there is no doubt that governmental agricultural risks management and agricultural insurance has become more and more important.As for China,since the beginning of 2004,the “No.1 Document” of the Central Committee has been the most important guiding document for solving the “three rural issues”.In recent years,the requirements for agricultural risk management and agricultural insurance development in China have become more and more important.In 2018,the Central "No.1 Document" proposed to explore the pilot project of full cost insurance and income insurance for rice,wheat and corn.It was jointly issued by the Ministry of Finance,the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission in August 2018.The Notice on Carrying Out the Pilot Work on the Full Cost Insurance and Income Insurance of the Three Major Food Crops is aimed at promoting the transformation and upgrading of agricultural insurance and ensuring the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain.This represents the official entry of China's crop income insurance and puting it into the pilot work of the central government.This stage has played a very important role in promoting the development of China's income insurance.At present,the types of agricultural insurance in China are still very scarce compared with developed countries.In the existing agricultural insurance system,production insurance accounts for the largest proportion in addition to a small amount of price insurance and index insurance,while income insurance is still at the initial stage of development of the pilot work.However,regardless of the degree of protection for farmers or the degree of risk control of insurance companies,income insurance has obvious advantages over other agricultural insurance products.Therefore,China should speed up the development of crop income insurance and strive to establish a sound agricultural insurance system as soon as possible.The reason why this paper chooses Heilongjiang corn for income insurance pricing research are the following three points: First,corn is one of the three major food crops,and it is also the crop of the central “No.1 Document” that requires income insurance pilots in 2018.Second,the corn production in Heilongjiang Province has always been in the forefront of the country and Heilongjiang Province belongs to the main producing area of corn.It has a self-evident significance for national food security.Third,in 2016 the three provinces in northeast China and Inner Mongolia implemented the corn storage system.After the reform,the new system of “market-based acquisition and subsidy” was implemented,which led to a serious drop in corn prices in Heilongjiang Province and made the corn growers in Heilongjiang Province face great price risks.Therefore,it is not only possible to carry out corn income insurance in Heilongjiang Province,reducing the production risks faced by farmers can also solve the price risks after marketization and protect farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain which could contribute to China's food security.Therefore,this paper takes Heilongjiang Province as an example.Based on the study of domestic and foreign income insurance pricing mechanism,this paper tries to find an income insurance pricing method which is suitable for China's current situation in order to provide reference for the national corn income insurance and other income insurance mechanisms for crops or cash crops.Based on the above background and the current research situation of crop income insurance at home and abroad,this paper summarizes and elaborates on the concepts and characteristics of crop income insurance,the status quo of domestic development,the development history of American crop income insurance and experience,and on Heilongjiang Province.The production risk and price risk faced by corn growers have been analyzed in great detail,indicating the need to implement corn income insurance in Heilongjiang Province.After that,the price discovery function of China's corn futures market was studied.It is concluded that China's corn futures price is not suitable as the target price in corn income insurance,and the ARIMA model is used to directly determine the guaranteed income.Finally,the distribution fitting,Copula The method and Monte Carlo simulation method were used to calculate the rate of corn income insurance in Heilongjiang Province,and the premium subsidy program was analyzed.Based on the above research ideas,the specific contents of each chapter of this paper are summarized as follows:Chapter 1,Overview of Crop Income Insurance.First,this chapter describes the characteristics of agricultural risks and agricultural income risks and the relationship between them.On this basis,the definition and characteristics of crop income insurance are described.Secondly,this chapter briefly reviews the development status of China's crop income insurance.The results show that China's crop income insurance currently has only a small number of small-scale pilot projects,and its development is still at a relatively preliminary stage.Afterwards,the development process of American crop income insurance was sorted out,and it was found that the US crop income insurance system has been perfected.Finally,this chapter briefly summarizes the development experience and reference of American crop income insurance,and finds its management system in agricultural insurance,collection and management of agricultural data,maturity of crop futures market,subsidy system of income insurance,and the decentralized mechanism of catastrophe risk is worth learning.Chapter 2,Analysis of Corn Revenue Risk in Heilongjiang Province.First of all,this chapter empirically analyzes the status of corn planting in Heilongjiang Province in the country,and finds that it ranks among the top in the country in terms of total output,planting area and yield per unit area.Secondly,an empirical analysis of the cost and benefit of corn planting in Heilongjiang Province shows that its net profit and cost profit margin are significantly better than the national average before 2016.The reason for the sharp decline in 2016 is because of Heilongjiang corn.Reform of the purchasing and storage policy.Finally,using HP filter analysis method and cyclical wave theory to empirically analyze the yield risk and price risk of maize in Heilongjiang Province.The results show that the corn yield and price fluctuations in Heilongjiang Province are very obvious,further indicating that there is serious income risk of corn in Heilongjiang Province.So it is necessary to carry out corn income insurance in Heilongjiang Province.Chapter 3,Corn Income Insurance Pricing Basis: Research on the Price Discovery Function of China's Corn Futures Market.At present,the target price of US crop income insurance mainly refers to the price of crop futures contract.The reason is that the development of the US agricultural futures market is quite mature.The relationship between agricultural futures prices and spot prices is very close,and the crop futures market can supply and demand for the future.The situation and market price changes react in advance,and the futures market can also be used to spread the risk.Therefore,it is reasonable to use the futures price as the target price in income insurance.However,in the case that the price discovery function of crop futures market is not obvious,it is not very reasonable to use futures price as the target price in income insurance.Therefore,before pricing income insurance,it is necessary to find the function of price in China corn futures market research.This chapter uses correlation analysis,ADF test,cointegration test,Granger causality test and GS model test to analyze the relationship between corn futures price and spot price in China to judge whether there is a strong two-way relationship between the two.The results show that the price discovery function of China's corn futures market is not strong,and it is not suitable to use the futures price as the target price in the corn insurance income pricing of Heilongjiang Province.Chapter 4,Research on the Method of Determining Income Revenue.This chapter is mainly to solve the problem raised in the previous chapter.When the price discovery function of the crop futures market is not strong,how should the target price or the guaranteed income in the income insurance be determined? To solve this problem,the current common solution is to use the average spot price of crops in the past few years as the target price in income insurance.The calculation of the guaranteed income is the product of the average output and the average spot price in the past few years.Considering the correlation between price and output,the author believes that such a simple average lacks certain rigor.Therefore,this chapter attempts to use the ARIMA model to predict the annual income per unit area of corn in Heilongjiang Province as a guarantee income in income insurance.The author believes that this method can be used as a transitional scheme for crop income insurance pricing in the immature period of China's futures market.Chapter 5,Heilongjiang Province corn income insurance rate is determined.This chapter conducts an empirical study on the rate of corn income insurance in Heilongjiang Province,and compares it with the current level of corn income insurance rate in Heilongjiang Province.Firstly,this chapter fits the distribution of corn yield and spot price data in Heilongjiang Province,and selects the most suitable distribution model of corn yield and spot price series by means of K-S test,A-D test and chi-square test.Secondly,according to the optimal distribution of corn yield and price series,combined with Copula function,the optimal joint distribution function of corn yield and price is found.After that,Monte Carlo method was used to simulate 10,000 corn yield and price data in Heilongjiang Province,and the data was used to determine the rate based on the guaranteed income determined in the previous chapter.Finally,according to the insurance company's Heilongjiang corn income insurance rate regulations and the above-mentioned pure rate,the benchmark rate of corn income insurance is calculated,and compared with the actual rate,it is found that the difference between the two is not Large,indicating that the pricing method of this paper has certain practicability.Chapter 6,research conclusions and policy recommendations.First of all,this chapter summarizes the previous research and draws the following conclusions: crop income insurance has become the most important type of agricultural insurance in the world.China should accelerate the development of income insurance;the development of US crop income insurance is quite mature.China should learn from the actual situation reasonably;at this stage,the development of China's crop futures market is not mature enough,and the futures price should not be used as the target price in income insurance.It is feasible and rigorous to use the predicted value of crop unit area income as the guarantee income.Finally,this chapter provides some suggestions for the policy support needed for the development of crop income insurance: first,increase the reform of agricultural insurance policies,improve relevant laws and regulations;second,accelerate the establishment of agricultural product data systems,and achieve The effective connection of insurance companies;Third,accelerate the development of the futures market and improve the risk dispersion mechanism;Fourth,enhance the participation of insurance companies and enhance the innovation of agricultural insurance products.The innovations of this paper are mainly reflected in the following three aspects: First,this paper attempts to study the income risk of corn in Heilongjiang Province from the aspects of production risk and price risk,and empirically analyzes the status and cost benefits of corn in Heilongjiang Province.Secondly,this paper makes an in-depth analysis on whether corn futures price is suitable as the target price in income insurance,and recently studies the price discovery function of corn futures market,which provides a judgment for the selection of target price in income insurance.Thirdly,this paper attempts to use the predicted income per unit area of crops as the guaranteed income in income insurance,which provides a new idea for the pricing of income insurance in the period of immature development of crop futures market in China,making the income insurance pricing mechanism more scientific and reasonable.It can also provide some reference for the pricing research of other crop income insurance. |
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