Research On Risk Assessment And Risk Prevention Of Government Debt In H Province

At the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core proposed three major goals for the decisive battle to build a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way.Among them,preventing and resolving major risks is one of the three major goals.The local government debt risk is closely related to the stable operation of the national financial,fiscal and monetary systems.In order to prevent and resolve major risks,it is necessary to scientifically and reasonably evaluate and manage local government debt risks,and take certain measures to prevent and resolve local government debt risks,in order to achieve the purpose of preventing and resolving major risks.H province is deeply implementing the strategy of "three highs and four new".In order to promote the high-quality and healthy development of economic and social undertakings,it is very important to effectively prevent the government debt risks of H province.After consulting a large number of domestic and foreign experts and scholars’ relevant theoretical research,this paper combines literature research,qualitative and quantitative analysis and case analysis to study the local government debt risk in H province.First,the article expounds the background and significance of the topic selection,and conducts an in-depth analysis of the concept of local government debt in our country.Then,it introduces the general economic situation of H province and the economic situation of various cities,and then analyzes the debt scale and structure of H province government,and concludes that H province government debt has the characteristics of level imbalance,complex structure and delayed transmission.In order to obtain the risk level of the government debt of H province,this paper combines the economic and debt data of the local government of H province,and uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)to determine the weight of the debt risk evaluation index,and then constructs a debt evaluation index system for H province.Quantitative assessment of debt risk.According to the research results,it can be seen that the government debt of H province is in the medium risk range,which needs to be paid great attention by relevant government departments.Finally,the article analyzes the causes of government debt risk in H province,and draws three policy suggestions to prevent and resolve local government debt risks:one is to improve the assessment mechanism for government officials,the other is to standardize government debt management,and the third is to narrow the gap between fiscal revenue and expenditure.Through the above methods,controlling the scale of local government debt and preventing and resolving government debt risks can provide a certain reference for other regions to study local government debt problems.