Research On The Causes And Prevention Of Real Estate Corporate Bond Defaults

In recent years,the bond market defaults frequently,the scale has expanded,has caused a huge impact on all walks of life.The real estate industry is the backbone of the national economy.Under the circumstances of the pandemic and the downturn of the economic environment,debt defaults are highly concentrated in the real estate industry.Against this background,this paper takes YANGO as a case study,analyzes the causes of bond default,and puts forward relevant countermeasures to help enterprises adjust their strategies according to the internal and external environment,reduce their financial risks,and hope to have some reference for other real estate enterprises to promote the healthy development of our real estate and bond markets.This paper takes the theory of information asymmetry,the theory of optimal sequence financing and the theory of financial predicament as the theoretical basis to form a theoretical framework for analyzing the causes of YANGO default.By combining case study,literature study and comparative analysis,this paper analyzes the internal and external reasons of bond default in YANGO,introduces the revised Z-Score model and the revised KMV model to make quantitative early warning analysis of YANGO credit risk,and puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to prevent the risk of corporate bond default.Research shows that the causes of default in YANGO bonds have two levels of internal and external.External causes are:(1)The macroeconomic environment,the state has increased the policy constraints on the financing environment;(2)The economic development in the industry is weak,and the state has increased the regulatory requirements and strict policy regulation of housing enterprises,which limits the development of the YANGO.Internal causes are:(1)YANGO in the development process strategic radical,the company interest interest liability growth rapidly,overlay high-performance commitment versus betting agreements,bringing great financial pressure and risk to the company;(2)The overall financing capacity of the company decreases,the cost of financing is high,the use of "real debt" hidden debt,refinancing behavior is blocked,so that the financing risk increases,increasing the debt pressure;(3)The company has problems such as governance chaos,continuous business ability deterioration,and directly affects the company’s follow-up development.This article also established a corrected Z-Score and the corrected KMV model,which shows that the risk of default in YANGO has long been revealed,but companies and credit rating agencies have not raised their own vigilance.Based on the above issues,this article from the bond issuer,regulatory authorities,credit rating agencies and investors put forward countermeasures and suggestions:(1)The bond issuer should adjust development strategies in accordance with the macro environment and industry changes in a timely manner in line with their own actual and timely development strategy,avoid blind short-sighted financing behavior,improve corporate governance level,establish risk warning awareness,and establish effective risk warning mechanisms;(2)The regulatory authorities should strengthen the enterprise’s differentiated financing behavior to guide and improve the enterprise’s bond information disclosure system,and should further improve the credit rating system and legal regulation system;(3)Credit rating agencies should strengthen the tracking rating,improve the risk warning function,but also adopt a variety of payment models to mitigate the issue of interest;(4)For investors,the active information attention to the issuing subject should be strengthened and raise the awareness of risk prevention.