Research On The Dispersion Mechanism Of Agricultural Insurance Catastrophic Risk In Guizhou Provinc

Catastrophe risk of agricultural insurance refers to the risk that agricultural insurers face huge compensation and affect their normal operation due to the occurrence of insurance accidents,such as extreme agricultural meteorological disasters,which cause great damage to agricultural,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery production,and a large amount of damage to agricultural insurance objects.Since 2013,the scale of agricultural insurance premiums in Guizhou Province has achieved rapid growth,and the coverage of agricultural insurance has become wider and wider.However,Guizhou Province is one of the provinces with the most serious natural disasters in China.The frequent occurrence of various natural disasters has caused a huge impact on agricultural production in Guizhou Province.Guizhou Province has a long flood season and many heavy rainstorms.Its flood discharge and storage capacity is insufficient.The rivers in Guizhou’s mountainous areas have steep slopes and rapid flows,causing serious floods;Guizhou Province is located in a low latitude mountain area,with poor water storage capacity of karst landform.It is affected by drought every year.In recent years,affected by extreme weather,wind and hail disasters have also had a significant impact on agricultural production.With the expansion of agricultural insurance coverage,the extreme natural environment in Guizhou Province has increased the risk exposure of agricultural insurance.In order to improve the operational stability of agricultural insurance institutions in Guizhou Province and promote the high-quality development of agricultural insurance,it is urgent to establish a catastrophe risk dispersion mechanism of agricultural insurance in line with the actual situationofGuizhouProvince.Under this background,this paper first analyzes and studies the general situation of major natural disasters and the development status of agricultural insurance in Guizhou Province,and then analyzes the current situation of the agricultural insurance catastrophe risk dispersion mechanism in Guizhou Province.It is found that the current agricultural insurance catastrophe risk dispersion mode in Guizhou Province is mainly based on the catastrophe risk reserves and reinsurance purchased by insurance companies,which is far from meeting the growing demand for agricultural insurance catastrophe risk dispersion in Guizhou Province.Therefore,on the basis of the previous analysis and research,drawing on the successful experience of typical agricultural insurance catastrophe risk diversification mechanisms at home and abroad,we have designed and constructed a framework of agricultural insurance catastrophe risk diversification mechanism in Guizhou Province,in which farmers retain part of the risk,agricultural insurance companies at the low risk level of agricultural insurance catastrophe risk bear the risk,agricultural reinsurance bears the middle and low risk levels,and government catastrophe risk funds bear the high risk levels,The extreme risk layer is assumed by the catastrophe risk securitization and emergency plan.Then,taking the corn planting insurance as an example,the POT-GPD model in the extreme value theory is used to calculate the catastrophe threshold compensation rate of the corn planting insurance.Then,the financial risk measurement method VaR model and TVaR model are used to achieve the stratification of the catastrophe risk and determine the specific risk sharing proportion of each level of the mechanism,It will provide a reference for the establishment of the agricultural insurance catastrophe risk diversification mechanism in Guizhou Province in the future.Finally,it proposes to establish a multi subject participation and multi-level agricultural insurance catastrophe risk dispersion mechanism,in order to achieve high-quality development of agricultural insurance in Guizhou Province and promote the development of agricultural modernization.