CD Rural Commercial Bank Q Branch Research On Risk Factors Of Agricultural Loans Based On Logistic Regression Model

For a long time,when dealing with loan business,there are some problems,such as incomplete credit system,non-standard financial statements,lack of strong guarantee and relatively complex enterprise management.Compared with mature large commercial banks,rural commercial banks,the main force serving "agriculture,rural areas and farmers",have some problems such as extensive operation and management,backward risk control technology and poor risk management awareness.As a result,rural commercial banks have a large loan risk hidden danger,which is often concentrated in the group of agriculture-related customers.Therefore,this paper analyzes the agricultural loan risk problems existing in the development of CD rural commercial bank,and provides corresponding suggestions for improving the risk management level of agricultural credit in agricultural commercial bank.Firstly,this paper understands the relevant research on credit risk identification,analysis and its influencing factors,and takes credit risk theory,credit rationing theory,expected income theory,and agricultural industry weak quality theory as the theoretical basis of this paper.Secondly,the current situation of agriculture-related loans of CD Rural Commercial Bank Q Branch was further analyzed,and the risk management of CD Rural Commercial Bank Q Branch was comprehensively understood.The above content lays the foundation for the subsequent empirical analysis of this paper,and 1000 sets of data are randomly selected from the information management system of the Q branch of CD Rural Commercial Bank as the data basis of this paper.The logistic model was used to confirm and analyze the influencing factors of agriculture-related loans of CD Rural Commercial Bank’s Q branch.Through empirical analysis,this paper concludes that the number of agriculture-related loans,loan term,age of lenders,educational background,annual income level,loan purpose and guarantee method will all have an impact on the loan default rate.In view of this,the author of this paper puts forward the need for strict access management of agriculture-related loan customers based on the actual research and found problems.Further improve customer credit file management systems,promoting the establishment of modern risk early warning and offset mechanisms;Finally,strengthen inclusive publicity and improve post-loan supervision.This study puts forward targeted suggestions for CD Rural Commercial Bank’s loan management in the future,which can strengthen the management of factors with greater influence on agriculture-related credit risks and improve the quality of credit assets.At the same time,other financial institutions can also refer to the research ideas of this paper to clarify the degree of influence on various credit risk factors according to their own situation,so as to better formulate preventive measures.