| Urban agglomeration is a spatial structure formed to promote urbanization and economic development to a higher stage.It is also an important platform for promoting regional economic growth,regional coordinated development and accelerating regional integration process.The concept of green development is the basic starting point of our ecological civilization construction and the undertone of our economic development in the new era.The combination of these two topics has produced a new concept,namely green development of urban agglomerations.Nowadays,promoting green development of urban agglomerations is related to the construction of a modern socialist country and the realization of the goal of "carbon peak and carbon neutrality".Green development of urban agglomerations has become a hot research issue.The Chengdu-Chongqing dual City economic Circle is a "dual core" urban agglomeration formed by promoting the integrated development of various urban groups in Chongqing metropolitan area and Chengdu Metropolitan Area.Since 2010,the urbanization process and industrialization in Chengdu-Chongqing region have accelerated,and the development problems within the city cluster have become increasingly prominent.The industrial structure in urgent need of transformation,unreasonable energy consumption structure,imperfect coordination mechanism,low resource utilization efficiency,and worsening environmental pollution have made the ecological environment more severe.It is imperative to promote the green development of the Chengdu-Chongqing twin city economic circle.Even though the green development of the Chengdu-Chongqing region has achieved certain results since 2016,the problem of short board is becoming more prominent.Therefore,it is extremely important to further stimulate the green development potential of the urban agglomeration for the realization of high-quality development of the ChengduChongqing twin City economic Circle.This paper focuses on how to effectively promote the green development potential of Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle.Firstly,this paper reviews the research status of urban agglomerations,green development,green development of urban agglomerations and system dynamics,and briefly expounds basic theories such as regional economic spatial structure theory,Marxist ecological civilization theory,urban agglomerations spatial structure theory and system science theory.By analyzing the current achievements,problems,advantages and opportunities of green development of Chengdu-Chongqing Twin City economic Circle,the paper constructs the evaluation index system of green development of Chengdu-Chongqing Twin City Economic Circle by referring to previous studies and combining the three principles of data availability,timeliness and authority,and uses entropy weight to determine the weight of each index.TOPSIS method was used to evaluate and analyze the change of green development level in Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle from 2010 to 2020.Secondly,the WSR research framework for green development of Chengdu-Chongqing Economic circle in Chengdu-Chongqing area is put forward by using the system methodology of physical management and human Management(WSR),taking Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle area as the research object.The system elements are clarified,the system structure is sorted out,the dynamic mechanism is analyzed,and the causal feedback relationship and mathematical function relationship between the core elements and variables are determined.The system dynamics model of green development of Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle is constructed.Finally,several regulation indicators are selected from the aspects of industrial structure green transformation,industrial innovation ability,strengthening pollution control and ecological protection,energy structure optimization,and abundant public green resources.Through the simulation analysis of six different green development scenarios,obtaining optimal development plan to improve the green development level of Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle in the future,and put forward some countermeasures and suggestions.The results show that:(1)Since 2015,obvious achievements have been made in the green development of the Chengdu-Chongqing Twin City Economic Circle.The quality of economic green growth,industrial innovation ability,environmental governance and environmental quality have made the greatest contribution to the improvement of the green development potential of the twin City economic Circle in the Chengdu-Chongqing region,while the internal structure of the urban agglomeration and the public green resource index have limited increase,which have little impact on the improvement of the green development potential of the urban agglomeration.Most of the secondary indicators showed a good development trend,but the total energy consumption,per capita energy consumption,industrial solid waste emissions and other indicators increased,general industrial solid waste unused consumption and storage,ozone concentration remained high and did not decline,the proportion of nature reserve area in the regional area,the utilization rate of general industrial solid waste declined year by year.In the future,it is necessary to strengthen the control of energy consumption and solid waste management and utilization,strengthen the control of ecological red lines,and guide people to practice green lifestyle.(2)The green transformation of industrial structure,the improvement of industrial innovation ability and the strengthening of pollution control can better control pollutant emission,improve resource utilization efficiency and achieve green economic growth.Meanwhile,the optimization of energy structure and the abundant public green resources can also promote the green development potential of urban agglomerations to some extent,but the promotion is limited.The comprehensive development plan that simultaneously adjusts industrial structure,scientific and technological innovation,energy structure,pollution control and ecological protection,and public green resources is the best way to stimulate the green development potential of Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration to the maximum extent. |
