A Study On The Effect Of RCEP On Import And Export Trade Of Chinese Manufacturing Industry

Facing the resurgence of trade protectionism,RCEP has significant significance for the world economic recovery by opening up the market to tap the regional growth potential.The RCEP FTA contains both developed and developing countries,and the differences in the level of economic development among members and the complementary economic structures among members will help member countries achieve complementary industrial advantages,form a healthier industrial system through a rational division of labor,and help China’s manufacturing industry achieve industrial optimization and upgrading.The entry into force of RCEP provides a solid institutional basis for all parties to continue exploring regional trade,but it is not yet known what impact the entry into force of RCEP will have on China’s various manufacturing sectors.Therefore,it is necessary to study the effect of RCEP on China’s macro-economy and manufacturing industry,and to help China’s manufacturing industry optimize its import and export trade structure.Firstly,this paper analyzes the current status of China’s manufacturing import and export trade through the information related to China’s manufacturing import and export trade from 2011-2021,and effectively measures the competitive advantage of China’s manufacturing industry with other RCEP member countries based on the improved explicit comparative advantage index;secondly,it analyzes the impact of the RCEP taking effect on China’s manufacturing import and export trade from the perspective of tariff barriers and non-tariff barriers The GTAP simulation method is used to calculate the actual tariff reductions based on the Tariff Commitment Table to predict the economic impact of RCEP’s entry into force on China’s manufacturing import and export trade.The study shows that the entry into force of RCEP will raise China’s GDP and welfare level,expand the scale of China’s imports and exports,boost the economic and trade growth of member countries,and accelerate the growth rate of residents’ welfare.However,there are negative macroeconomic impacts on non-member countries.At the industry level,the implementation of RCEP reflects a more significant trade transfer and creation effect,with the scale of manufacturing imports and exports among members expanding and the scale of foreign trade in manufacturing between member and non-member countries gradually decreasing.Among the major trading partners of China’s manufacturing industry,the scale of trade with RCEP member countries has been expanding,especially Japan,South Korea and the ASEAN region,and the scale of import and export trade with other non-member countries has shown different degrees of decline.At the same time,the impact of RCEP’s reduction of tariff and non-tariff barriers on different manufacturing sectors in China has obvious variability.China is able to continue to maintain its advantage in low-tech manufacturing,but the medium-high and high-tech manufacturing sectors are at a disadvantage in competing with other RCEP members’ markets.Therefore,in order to adapt to the more open and competitive market after RCEP comes into effect,China’s manufacturing industry needs to improve its own product standards,benchmark itself against high-level international technologies,cultivate a team of scientific and technological talents,and enhance the competitiveness of medium-and high-end industries.Through the rational use of the content of the RCEP provisions,actively expand the market of RCEP member countries,effectively use this opportunity to help China’s manufacturing industry to achieve optimization and upgrading,and promote the healthy development of industry.At the same time,in the face of fierce competition in the big market,Chinese manufacturing industry also urgently needs to increase investment in R&D,improve the competitiveness of China’s manufacturing industry in the international market and expand the scale of import and export of Chinese manufacturing industry by adjusting the product structure and producing various types of products according to different market demands.In addition,in order to create a favorable foreign trade environment,China needs to maintain good relations with trading countries and can promote mutual economic and trade development through political,economic as well as cultural cooperation.