Research On The Economic Effects Of RCEP Tariff Reduction On China's Dairy Product Import

Under the background of the signing of the RCEP agreement,China,as one of the RCEP members,will gradually reduce tariffs in the next 20 years in accordance with the Tariff Commitment Table,which is bound to have a certain economic impact on China’s dairy industry.Based on the perspective of tariff reduction,this paper deeply studies the economic effects of different degrees of tariff reduction under the RCEP agreement on China’s dairy imports,which is of great significance for improving the international competitiveness of Chinese dairy products,improving the comprehensive production capacity of Chinese dairy enterprises,and promoting the high-quality development of Chinese dairy products.Based on the theory of free trade area and the theory of customs union,this paper mainly studies the economic effects of RCEP tariff concessions on China’s dairy imports.First,based on post-hoc estimates,an extended gravitational model is constructed to estimate China’s import potential for dairy products from RCEP member countries.Secondly,based on prior estimation,the general equilibrium and local equilibrium are combined to quantitatively analyze the economic effects under different tariff reduction scenarios: on the one hand,the dynamic GTAP model of general equilibrium is selected to compare and analyze the terms of trade effect between China and RCEP members and the industrial output effect of Chinese dairy products before and after the establishment of RCEP.On the other hand,the locally balanced SMART model is selected to analyze China’s trade creation effect,trade transfer effect,tariff revenue effect and welfare effect on the import of dairy products in RCEP member countries.Based on the above theoretical research and empirical analysis,the following conclusions are drawn: First,the reduction of dairy tariffs after the establishment of the RCEP free trade area can promote China’s import of dairy products from RCEP member countries,and China’s dairy import trade with RCEP member countries is mainly potential development,and there is a certain trade space in the future.Second,RCEP tariff concessions have promoted the improvement of China’s terms of trade and the increase of dairy output,and the trade creation effect,trade transfer effect,tariff revenue effect and welfare effect of China’s dairy products have also increased to varying degrees.Third,RCEP tariff concessions can promote China’s shift to imports of milk powder,fresh milk and whey products from Australia,milk powder from South Korea,and yogurt from Japan.Based on this,the following suggestions are put forward: First,from the government level,refine dairy industry standards,establish and improve dairy product safety management institutions,and strengthen dairy import and export management.Second,from the level of dairy enterprises,understand the international trading rules of dairy products,take root in the domestic and foreign markets,seek a diversified layout of dairy products,and enrich the connotation of high-end dairy brands.The third is to improve the purchasing power of dairy products from the consumer level,pursue "quality consumption",and encourage the diversification of consumption scenarios.