Research On The Impact Of Leverage Ratio Of Non-financial Enterprises On The Systemic Financial Risk

After the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008,governments around the world have taken relevant measures to stimulate economic recovery.China issued the "Four trillion economic Plan",which led to a rapid recovery of our economy,but at the same time left some problems,the overall and various sectors of the debt scale is constantly expanding,the leverage ratio is rising rapidly,especially non-financial enterprises in the leverage ratio of the first increase in all sectors.In recent years,China has already recognized the seriousness of high corporate leverage and put forward a series of measures,such as "deleveraging" and "structural deleveraging",and enterprises have achieved certain results in reducing leverage.However,corporate leverage remains at a high level.However,after the outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia,the monetary authorities implemented loose monetary policies and increased the money supply,while the leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises showed a rising trend again,which led to a complicated economic and financial environment,which may further accumulate and transfer financial risks among various subjects and departments,leading to economic and financial turmoil.Eventually,systemic financial risks broke out.In this context,it will be of great significance to study the impact of leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises on systemic financial risks,which can provide certain references for how to reduce systemic financial risks and promote stable economic development.This paper mainly adopts the research methods of literature analysis,theoretical analysis and empirical analysis to explore the influence of leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises on systemic financial risk.In the literature analysis part,this paper mainly combs the existing researches from three perspectives: the definition and measurement of leverage ratio,the concept and measurement of systemic financial risk,and the influence of non-financial enterprise leverage ratio on systemic financial risk,summarizes the existing research status and makes relevant comments.In the part of theoretical analysis,the debt-deflation theory,financial vulnerability theory,financial cycle theory and asset price bubble theory are basically elaborated,and on this basis,the mechanism effect of non-financial enterprise leverage ratio on systemic financial risk is explored.In the empirical analysis part,based on the data of some Chinese A-share listed companies from 2005 to 2021,the leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises in each province is measured.The relevant data of 30 provinces from 2005 to 2021 are selected as research samples,and the comprehensive index method and entropy method are used to construct the systematic financial risk index.Based on the above data,panel data is formed,and the fixed-effect model is adopted to empirically study the influence of leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises on systemic financial risks.This paper draws the following conclusions:First,from the perspective of leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises,the leverage ratio of Chinese non-financial enterprises is on the high side on the whole,and there are different leverage ratios in eastern,central and western regions,enterprises of different nature and enterprises in different states.Second,from the perspective of systemic financial risk,China’s regional systemic financial risk generally presents U-shaped fluctuations,and the systemic financial risk in eastern China is lower than that in central and western China.Thirdly,from the perspective of the influence of leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises on systemic financial risks,the research finds that there is a nonlinear relationship between leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises and systemic financial risks,showing a "U" shape.The leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises in eastern and western China also presents a "U" shape with different inflection points,while the influence of leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises in central China on systemic financial risks has a linear relationship.There is a nonlinear relationship between the leverage ratio of local state-owned enterprises and systemic financial risks,but there may be no nonlinear relationship between central enterprises and private enterprises and systemic financial risks.There is a U-shaped nonlinear relationship between the leverage ratio of normal enterprises and systemic financial risk,while the leverage ratio of problem enterprises is positively correlated with systemic financial risk,that is,the increase of the leverage ratio of problem enterprises will significantly increase the systemic financial risk.Based on the research results of this paper,it is proposed to establish the measurement mechanism of systemic financial risk.Implement differentiated financial prevention and control policies.Suggestions for optimizing corporate assets and financing structure.