Real Estate Supply Chain Financial Assets Securitization Credit Risk Analysis And Prevention

In recent years,relevant departments have introduced a number of policies such as "three red lines" to limit the disorderly expansion of the debt scale of real estate enterprises,and the financing difficulties of real estate enterprises have become prominent under the "no speculation in housing and housing".The securitization of supply chain financial assets has become an innovative financing channel for the real estate industry.Since this business started late,the overall development is still immature,and the transaction supervision has not been perfected.Moreover,there are many participants with complex structure,and its credit risk has attracted extensive attention from the market.The review of domestic and foreign literature shows that most studies on the risk analysis of supply chain financial assets securitization only focus on the qualitative analysis of its external mode and risk prevention,and few studies use models to measure the case credit risk.Considering that S real estate Company,one of the oldest real estate enterprises in China,ranks second among the top 20 BJ real estate enterprises’ sales performance in the Middle Finger Research Institute from January to September 2022,which is representative to a certain extent,this paper will take the company’s credit risk as the object of analysis."PA Securities-RY Supply Chain Finance No.16 Asset Support Special Plan(hereinafter referred to as" PARY16 ")"),one of its securitization products of supply chain finance assets,is selected as the research object for credit risk analysis,which provides some reference for related real estate industry.This paper firstly introduces the background of financial asset securitization of real estate supply chain on the basis of macro research,and then reviews the five aspects of the special asset support plan: core enterprises,project overview,participants,product structure design and basic asset pool.Then,according to the introduction of the concept of credit risk in the securitization of supply chain financial assets mentioned above,the dominant position of credit risk of core enterprises to the overall product risk is found out through the calculation of analytic hierarchy process,and the quantitative measurement of core enterprises is carried out by combining the KMV model and Z-score model to find the credit risk of core enterprises.Therefore,it can be concluded that there are credit risks in the special plan products studied in this paper.Then,according to the characteristics of supply chain financial assets securitization,the source of credit risk is analyzed from the underlying assets,repayment and transaction structure.Finally,the paper puts forward some credit risk prevention suggestions for the special plan products.The main points of this paper are as follows: First,through analytic hierarchy process,it is concluded that the credit risk status of the whole product is dominated by the core enterprise.Therefore,in order to make the result of risk measurement more convincing,this paper adopts KMV model and Z-score model for quantitative measurement,and finds that the special plan product has credit risk.Secondly,according to the above research results,the risk sources of products are analyzed from the three aspects of underlying assets,repayment and transaction structure,and the problems of high asset concentration and insufficient cash flow are found in the underlying asset pool.The core enterprise and the original equity owner of the repayment have the problem of declining profit level.The lack of external credit enhancement measures and the risk of bankruptcy isolation exist in the transaction structure;Then put forward targeted suggestions for the problems existing in each link of risk sources.