Research On Early Warning Of Financial Risks Of Agriculture And Animal Husbandry In Pengdu Based On BP Neural Network Model

With the rapid development of China’s economy,the status of the primary industry of agriculture has become more prominent,and agriculture plays a vital role in the stable development of the national economy.Compared with enterprises in other industries,agriculture has its inherent specific risks,so it is of great significance to build ascientific and effective financial risk early warning model to improve the financial risk control ability of agricultural listed companies.As a comprehensive agricultural industrialization enterprise,Pengdu Agriculture and Animal Husbandry has a variety of internal and external problems,the specific situation is as follows: Although Pengdu Agriculture and Animal Husbandry does not wear the dangerous hat of "ST",and even looks at its financial reports,the net profit of its financial reporting enterprises has basically been positive every year since its listing,and it has achieved profits on the surface.In June 2021,Pengdu Agriculture and Animal Husbandry was inquired by the China Securities Regulatory Commission,and the non-recurring profit and loss is not directly related to the business business of the enterprise and is difficult to have continuity,which will affect the true and fair reflection of the normal profitability of the enterprise;Therefore,we believe that this indicator should be excluded when assessing enterprise value.The non-net profit of Pengdu Agriculture and Animal Husbandry has been negative for many years,to a certain extent,reflecting that it has not achieved profitability or lack of profitability in the actual sense.In addition,in recent years,Pengdu Agriculture and Animal Husbandry can be said to be the "focus of attention" of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange,and the annual report inquiry letter is commonplace.In addition,other factors such as frequent changes in the main business,high equity pledge ratio of major shareholders,and the scale of the company’s interest-bearing liabilities exceeding the scale of monetary funds,it is believed that Pengdu Agriculture and Animal Husbandry needs to warn of financial risks and control risks.This paper takes the financial data of 35 agricultural listed companies listed on A-shares in 24 quarters from 2015 to 2020 as samples,selects 29 financial indicators and 1non-financial index,extracts 10 principal factors by factor analysis method,constructs a financial risk early warning model through the training and testing of BP neural network model,and conducts financial risk early warning research on Pengdu agriculture and animal husbandry.After training and testing,the overall prediction accuracy of the model reached92.1%,and the model application was carried out on Pengdu Agriculture and Animal Husbandry,and it was found that the early warning results were more consistent with the actual situation.That is,the BP neural network is selected to build a financial risk early warning model and carry out risk early warning control,which is conducive to obtaining more objective and accurate data results,and can provide reference for Pengdu Agriculture and Animal Husbandry to carry out financial risk early warning work.