| GEM--Second board market,the main purpose of GEM is to help SME for development;to build a normal exit mechanism for the venture capital and venture capital companies; to enrich multi-level capital market system.Since October30,2009to august1,2013, GEM listed companies developed rapidly, the number of GEM listed company has expand to355.In China, GEM listed company has some own characters,most of listed company scale is very small,while facing environmental variability and uncertainty about the future. these factors make the GEM market is a high-risk and growth market.Considering the high growth and high-risk of GEM, as well as the implementation of the National GEM delisting test rule, we need to establish a scientific risk early warning system. Therefore, we propose to establish a risk early warning model GEM listed companies, in order to avoid risks to investors, provide a reference for policy makers, but also to urge listed companies to strengthen self-management.Firstly, this paper introduces the risk warning, the GEM related basic theory of risk faced by listed companies on GEM were discussed, summed up the GEM special risk factors.Secondly, Through literature review we found that the current models are mostly concentrated in the areas of financial risk warning,what’s more, China still lacks a comprehensive risk prediction model.this paper build a comprehensive risk prediction model for GEM listed companies.The financial indicators and non-financial indicators were treated differently in this paper,we build a financial risk early warning model and non-financial risk early warning model, and then combine the two models to construct a comprehensive risk prediction model. Finally, in the East Sunrise’s case, the model will be applied to East Sunrise risk warning evaluation cases, and we draw a conclusion that East Sunrise Enterprises exsit higher risk,which should cause policy makers and institutional investors attention. |
