The Effect,Mechanism And Countermeasure Analysis Of Economic Policy Uncertainty Affecting Consumption Upgrading

The world today is in the midst of a major change unprecedented in a century,with the world economy in recession,the prevalence of anti-globalization thinking,and the intensification of trade friction among economies,resulting in an increasingly complex international economic and political environment.At the same time,China’s economy has entered a new normal,deepening reform,continuing to adjust the economic structure,and successively introducing various economic policies to promote high-quality economic development,which has increased the risk of economic policy uncertainty while alleviating China’s economic difficulties.Internal and external difficulties,China’s economic policy uncertainty further intensified.The frequent changes in economic policies are not conducive to creating stable expectations,and micro consumption subjects are subject to limited rationality and information asymmetry,etc.,and their consumption decisions will be in an uncertain economic policy environment.In this context,exploring the effects and mechanisms of economic policy uncertainty on consumption upgrading can help clarify the regular characteristics of economic policy and consumption upgrading,and block the negative effects of uncertainty on consumption expansion and quality improvement.Based on compiling existing studies,this thesis sorts out the research ideas of this thesis:first,theoretically analyze the effects and mechanisms of economic policy uncertainty on consumption upgrading and discuss the possible heterogeneity;second,select micro data from CFPS 2012-2018 and the Chinese economic policy uncertainty index established by Davids et al.based on mainland Chinese news theses to empirically analyze the To avoid the impact of omitted variables and endogeneity problems on the model results,the regression results are robustly tested by replacing the core explanatory variables as well as the two-stage least squares method of instrumental variables;finally,precautionary savings and liquidity constraint indicators are constructed to investigate in depth the impact of economic policy uncertainty on consumption upgrading.Finally,precautionary savings and liquidity constraint indicators are constructed to investigate the mechanism of economic policy uncertainty affecting consumption upgrading.Based on the above analysis,this thesis draws the following conclusions:(1)From an overall perspective,economic policy uncertainty has a significant positive promotion effect on consumption structure upgrading and a significant negative inhibition effect on consumption quality upgrading.(2)From the perspective of urban-rural heterogeneity,economic policy uncertainty inhibits consumption structure and consumption quality upgrading of urban households and promotes consumption structure and consumption quality upgrading of rural households,and the impact effect on consumption quality upgrading is significantly larger than that on consumption structure upgrading;from the perspective of income level heterogeneity,economic policy uncertainty promotes consumption structure and consumption quality upgrading of low-income households(below 25% of income)and inhibits consumption quality upgrading of high-income households.From the perspective of income level heterogeneity,economic policy uncertainty promotes consumption structure and consumption quality upgrading of low-income households(up to 25% of income),suppresses consumption structure and consumption quality upgrading of high-income households(above 75% of income),and is consistent with the overall effect of middle-income households;from the perspective of household dependency burden heterogeneity,the effect on consumption structure upgrading of both types of households is positive,and the effect on consumption quality upgrading is negative,and the impact effect on consumption structure upgrading of households with dependency burden is more The impact effect on the upgrade of consumption structure of households with dependency burden is more significant.(3)From the perspective of the impact mechanism,economic policy uncertainty inhibits the upgrading of consumption structure and consumption quality through two channels: precautionary savings and liquidity constraints,and the negative impact on consumption quality is more significant.Finally,based on the above theoretical analysis and empirical research conclusions,this paper puts forward suggestions to strengthen the construction of risk prevention system,improve the construction of social security system,and vigorously develop the consumer credit system,so as to achieve the purpose of promoting consumption expansion and improving quality under the uncertain environment.