Research On The Impact Of Financial Cycle On The Leverage Ratio Of China’s Non-financial Enterprises

After the financial crisis in 2008,the leverage ratio of China’s non-financial enterprises grew too fast and remained at a high level for a long time.At the same time,China’s macrocontrol has long faced a difficult balance between controlling leverage,stabilizing finance and promoting growth.Since China’s economic transformation has entered a new normal,the government has proposed that finance should better serve the real economy,and studying the influence of financial cycle on the leverage of non-financial enterprises is of great significance for deepening the existing theoretical research of financial cycle,preventing financial risks and efficiently structural deleveraging.In this paper,seven variables such as M2 quarter-on-quarter growth rate,private sector credit growth rate and 7-day interbank lending rate are used to synthesize the financial cycle composite index by HP filtering and standardization method.This paper selects the quarterly data of all A-share listed companies’ financial statements from 2014 to 2021,and uses the static fixed effect panel model and the dynamic GMM model to test the impact of China’s financial cycle on the leverage ratio of enterprises.The results obtained by the two models are basically the same: the financial cycle has a negative impact on the leverage ratio of nonfinancial listed companies in China.By refining the leverage of enterprises,it is found that the fluctuation of financial cycle mainly affects the short-term leverage of enterprises.Then,the heterogeneity test is carried out on the sample classification of enterprises.From the debt side of enterprises,the impact of financial cycle fluctuations on the leverage ratio of listed enterprises is more obvious in small-scale,weak external financing capacity and non-stateowned holding enterprises.From the asset side of enterprises,enterprises that hold more investment real estate and financial assets have a greater response to the fluctuation of financial cycle.From the perspective of different industries,the fluctuation of financial cycle has the greatest impact on transportation and real estate.According to the results of the previous research,this paper gives some reasonable suggestions from two angles on how China’s non-financial listed companies should deal with the risk of financial cycle fluctuations.From the perspective of enterprises,enterprises should actively broaden financing channels,optimize debt structure,increase the proportion of long-term debt,and improve the stability of corporate bank credit and commercial credit financing channels.And the government should optimize the allocation of financial resources and support the allocation of funds for high-tech industries.