Analysis Of Commercial Banks' Risk-taking Under Different Monetary Policie

The global subprime mortgage crisis broke out in 2008 brought great disaster to the financial system of the whole world..As for the cause of the outbreak of the financial crisis,many scholars said that the high risk-taking of financial institutions led to the occurrence of the subprime mortgage crisis.After that,the channel theory of bank risk-taking was proposed as a new monetary testimony transmission mechanism which was different from the previous traditional theory.Monetary policy has kept the United States in a state of low interest rates for a long time,so that commercial banks have lowered their credit thresholds,resulting in excessive accumulation of risks in the financial system,which is a significant reason for the outbreak of the financial crisis.Once the theory was put forward,its validity and correctness were confirmed by many scholars.First of all,the article sorts out the relevant researches and conclusions of various scholars on bank risk-taking,briefly expounds the relevant concepts involved in the article,such as risk-taking,and discusses several main transmission mechanisms included in the risk-taking channel.At the same time,the evolution process and common forms of the MIDAS model established in this paper are introduced.Second,the paper selects the micro data of 14 listed commercial banks in my country from 2011 to 2020,and establishes the MIDAS mixed-frequency data model.Since my country’s monetary policy can be mainly divided into quantitative monetary policy and price-based monetary policy.Different monetary policy will have effect on the risk-taking of commercial banks,so we discuss the two different monetary policies separately in the research.In addition,the introduction of control vectors that are significantly related to the risk-taking of commercial banks,which are the proxy variables of the macroeconomic environment,and some bank characteristic vectors are involved in the establishment of the model,so as to target the two stages of the risk-taking channel of monetary policy,that is,different types of risk-taking channels.The impact of monetary policy on commercial banks’ risk-taking,and the impact of risk-taking factors on commercial banks’ credit issuance,are studied and analyzed.Finally,a realistic conclusion to verify the existence and effectiveness of the monetary policy risk-taking channel.The empirical results show that: under the loose monetary policy,whether it is quantitative or price-based,the risk-taking level will increase,and when the economy is in an upward period,the bank’s risk-taking will also increase;There is a significant positive relationship between the expected risk taking of bank credit issuance.In order to avoid bank risks and prevent unnecessary losses caused by excessive accumulation of risks,monetary authorities should fully consider and rationally combine macro-prudential policies with macro-economic policies to reduce bank risks and shrink bank credit to stabilize the financial market.