An Empirical Study On The Effect Of Monetary Policy Uncertainty On Corporate Risk-Taking

Corporate risk-taking represents an enterprise’s risk preference,which is the balance between expected returns and risks in the process of investment decision-making.It is also an important factor to promote enterprise performance and growth,and has an important impact on enterprise development and even the economic growth of the whole society.At present,when reviewing the literature to investigate the factors affecting corporate risk-taking,it is found that most scholars explain and analyze the impact on corporate risk-taking from the perspective of corporate governance such as basic characteristics of enterprises and individual characteristics of management,and generally assume that the risk preference of corporate decision makers or shareholders will not change with macroeconomic uncertainties.However,in recent years,especially since the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008,in response to the changes in the macroeconomic situation,central banks in various countries have started to make innovations in monetary policy tools,implement unconventional monetary policies and adjust intermediate targets to protect the real economy.Similarly,China is no exception.Under the background of increasingly complex international environment and difficult domestic economic operation,the People’s Bank of China has made multiple rounds of monetary policy adjustment in order to promote the stable and sustainable development of domestic economy.Not only the means of control are diverse,but also the frequency is high,which makes the uncertainty of monetary policy become a concern.Policy uncertainty can significantly change the risk preference of enterprises,and then affect the level of risk-taking.Therefore,this paper carries out corresponding research on this problem.First of all,this paper reviews relevant literature,and then theoretically analyzes the different ways in which the uncertainty of monetary policy affects corporate risk-taking.At the same time,it further analyzes the regulatory effects of financing constraints and commercial credit in this process,and proposes corresponding research hypotheses.Secondly,using the data of Chinese A-share listed non-financial enterprises in Shanghai and Shenzhen during 2007-2021 as empirical test samples,this paper adopts the fixed-effect panel model to conduct an empirical study on the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on corporate risk-taking.At the same time,based on the heterogeneity analysis of enterprise ownership structure,enterprise scale and the differences of the region where the enterprise is located,the paper finally tests the regulatory effects of two external factors--financing constraints and commercial credit,and further analyzes the ownership structure differences of trade credit.Through empirical analysis,the following conclusions are drawn:(1)the increase of monetary policy uncertainty will significantly reduce the corporate risk-taking;(2)Compared with state-owned enterprises,the phenomenon that the uncertainty of monetary policy leads to the decline of corporate risk-taking is more significant in non-state-owned enterprises;The greater the size of the firm,the greater the negative impact of the uncertainty of monetary policy on the level of corporate risk-taking;In terms of regional differences,the negative impact of monetary policy uncertainty on corporate risk-taking is more significant in the eastern and central regions.(3)The moderating effect of financing constraints exacerbates the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on the reduction of corporate risk-taking;(4)The moderating effect of commercial credit can inhibit the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on the reduction of corporate risk-taking,and trade credit can ease the financing constraints of enterprises and reduce financing costs.Compared with state-owned enterprises,the inhibitory effect of trade credit on corporate risk-taking.is stronger in non-state-owned enterprises.Finally,based on the research conclusions of this paper,the corresponding suggestions are put forward to the enterprises themselves and the government departments.