A Study Of House Prices,Resident Leverage And Consumption Crowding Out Effects

In the late 1990 s,my country reformed the traditional housing supply system and began to implement the commercialization of housing,which gave birth to the real estate market.After decades of development,on the one hand,China’s real estate industry has made significant contributions to China’s economic growth and has driven the rapid development of urbanization;on the other hand,with the rising housing prices,the negative effects of high housing prices also increasingly prominent.From the perspective of urban households,since housing is both an investment product and a consumer product,for households with multiple suites,the “wealth effect” of rising house prices may promote consumption;while for households with rigid needs to buy a house,high House prices forced them to borrow from banks,thereby increasing the leverage ratio of the household sector and crowding out consumption.So,are high housing prices promoting consumption or crowding out consumption? This is not only an in-depth theoretical problem,but also a practical problem currently promoting the "dual circulation" of the economy.Therefore,under the basic principle of "no housing speculation",this paper conducts a general theoretical analysis of the relationship between housing prices and consumption,and at the same time conducts an empirical analysis based on microscopic survey data,and puts forward corresponding policy recommendations on the basis of empirical conclusions to promote The stable and healthy development of China’s real estate market.According to the basic idea of "theoretical analysis-current situation analysis-empirical analysis-countermeasure analysis",this paper mainly studies the relationship between housing prices,residents’ leverage ratio and consumption crowding-out effect.The theoretical analysis part mainly briefly expounds the contents of the theories such as permanent income,household asset allocation,and consumer credit,and based on relevant theories,the possible impact of housing prices on residents’ leverage ratio,housing prices on consumption,and residents’ leverage ratio on consumption Discussions are conducted to lay the foundation for the construction of theoretical models and interpretation of research results in subsequent chapters.The current situation analysis part mainly uses various statistical indicators to describe the current situation of housing prices,residents’ leverage ratio and consumption in my country,and on the basis of the current situation analysis,it expounds the general relationship between housing prices,residents’ leverage ratio and residents’ consumption,and provides a basis for empirical analysis.support.The empirical analysis part constructs an econometric model of the impact of housing prices on household consumption,introduces the data sources and selected variables,and tests the overall impact of housing prices on household consumption through model regression analysis.The theoretical assumptions presented in this paper.The countermeasure analysis part is the policy suggestion of this paper,that is,according to the conclusion of the empirical analysis,combined with the national conditions of our country,a series of policy suggestions are put forward.This paper draws the following conclusions through empirical analysis,(1)Rising house prices will have a negative impact on household consumption,that is,there is a crowding-out effect of house prices on consumption;(2)Rising house prices will lead to an increase in the leverage ratio of residents,that is,rising house prices are mainly due to Crowding out consumption through rising household leverage.(3)There is heterogeneity in the crowding out of household consumption by households with different numbers of houses in the case of rising house prices,that is,there is less crowding out of many houses;more crowding out of houses without houses;(4)Income adjusts the impact of housing prices on consumer spending,and there is heterogeneity in the crowding-out effect of households with different incomes on household consumption when housing prices rise.