Identification And Regulatory Simulation Of Vulnerability In The ’Open Economy-Outbound Corridor’ System

In recent years,China’s outbound corridors have made significant progress,driven by the Belt and Road Initiative.The foreign economic and trade relations between various regions and countries along the Belt and Road have deepened,the open economy has further developed,and the coordinated advancement of the "open economy-outbound corridor" system has fostered a comprehensive opening-up pattern.Meanwhile,sustainable development has become a global consensus.However,as the degree of openness increases,the vulnerability of the "open economy-outbound corridor" system becomes more pronounced.To achieve sustainable development,it is crucial to reduce these vulnerabilities.Therefore,promptly identifying vulnerabilities in the development process of the "open economy-outbound corridor" system is essential to achieving sustainable development and facilitating a new comprehensive opening-up pattern.This paper evaluates the vulnerability of the "open economyoutbound corridor" system from the perspectives of sensitivity and resilience,examines the spatial effects of vulnerability development,and constructs a simulation model of the system’s vulnerability.The interaction mechanisms of each system element and their impact on system vulnerability are analyzed.(1)Using the "sensitivity-resilience" analysis framework,the vulnerability evaluation index system for the "open economy-outbound corridor" is constructed,and the set pair analysis model is employed to measure system vulnerability.Obstacle degree analysis is then conducted using the obstacle degree analysis method.The results indicate that:(1)Sensitivity displays a decreasing trend with evident "edge characteristics," particularly in border areas such as southwest border port cities.Resilience increases over time,with higher levels in eastern and central regions than in western regions.Overall vulnerability follows a downward trend with a distinct "corridor effect." The average vulnerability shifts from a medium to a low vulnerability state,and the structure of different vulnerability levels optimizes after the Belt and Road Initiative’s introduction in 2013.(2)Significant barrier factors for the open economy subsystem transition from developing foreign trade and attracting foreign capital to industrial structure,national consumption,and scientific and technological development.The primary obstacle factor for the outbound corridor subsystem remains the road network density,and after 2013,the shortest railway travel time becomes the second most significant barrier factor,reflecting the increasing importance of transportation convenience.(2)This paper explores the spatial disparities and spillovers of the "open economyoutbound corridor" system’s vulnerability using Theil Index and spatial Markov chain.The results show that:(1)Both overall and inter-provincial vulnerability differences exhibit a "spoon-shaped" change,characterized by an initial decrease followed by an increase,with 2013 as the turning point.The primary reason for the overall difference stems from inter-provincial differences,while inter-city differences are generally on the rise.The spatial difference in vulnerability among the four regions is evident,with the western region having the highest degree of spatial imbalance,followed by interregional,northeastern,eastern,and central regions.(2)Low-vulnerability cities have a significant positive spillover effect,which increases over time,and areas with decreasing vulnerability gradually shift from east to west.(3)A system dynamics model of the "open economy-outbound corridor" is constructed to describe the interaction mechanisms of various system elements and their influence on system vulnerability,with the aim of identifying effective ways to reduce system vulnerability.The results reveal that:(1)While maintaining the same degree of openness,foreign trade and foreign capital utilization significantly enhance sensitivity,whereas improving domestic trade and consumption levels has a more substantial effect on enhancing resilience than the former two factors,making it the most effective approach to reducing vulnerability.(2)Increasing the proportion of investment in fixed assets has little impact on sensitivity,but raising the proportion of investment in fixed assets,whether in transportation construction or industrial structure,significantly improves resilience.When increasing the same proportion,investment in transportation fixed assets has the most significant effect on reducing vulnerability,outperforming investments in tertiary and secondary industries.