| Since the financial crisis in 2008,the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the world’s economies has been continuing,and the Chinese economy has been facing enormous downward pressure since then.The government has introduced a series of macroeconomic policies,which are like a double-edged sword.The continuously adjusted policies can help China better respond to the changing world political and economic situation and maintain the stable development of the economy.However,the Economic Policy Uncertainty are also inevitable.As a national pillar industry in China,the Real Estate industry bears the brunt of the national macro-control focus,such as the "Four Trillion Plan","Housing Without Speculation","Three Red Lines" and other policies.These policies have a direct impact on China’s Real Estate enterprises.The impact mechanism and effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on enterprise bankruptcy risk deserve in-depth study.Based on the review of related literature,this thesis analyzes the mechanism of the impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on enterprise bankruptcy risk and the way of action from several dimensions,and then uses the data of A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2020 to empirically test the impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on enterprise bankruptcy risk.Finally takes Evergrande Group as an example to analyze the impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the bankruptcy risk of real estate enterprises,and put forward corresponding conclusions and policy recommendations.The findings of this thesis show that,firstly,Economic Policy Uncertainty has a significant positive impact on enterprise bankruptcy risk;Secondly,in the analysis of the mechanism of Economic Policy Uncertainty affecting enterprise bankruptcy risk,it is found that when Economic Policy Uncertainty rises,the higher the level of "short term debt used for long term",the stronger the financing constraints faced by enterprises,the lower the level of cash holding,and the more asset specialization,the higher the enterprise bankruptcy risk.Thirdly,in the environment of rising Economic Policy Uncertainty,the bankruptcy risk of state-owned enterprises is lower compared to non-state-owned enterprises;the bankruptcy risk of large scale enterprises is higher compared to small scale enterprises.Fourthly,through the case study of Evergrande Group,it is found that under the high Economic Policy Uncertainty in real estate industry,the phenomenon of "short term debt used for long term" of Evergrande Group is very common,and in the process of repayment pressure and construction promotion dilemma,the capital chain is easy to break;meanwhile,the tightening credit environment of the industry and the recession of the industry,the cash holding level of Evergrande Group further decreases;coupled with the inability of Evergrande Group to cross the Red Line,the availability of interest-bearing credit is limited;in addition,Evergrande Group holds a large amount of specialized assets such as land reserves and uncompleted buildings,which are difficult to be sold or can only be transferred at low prices,ultimately leading to the rising risk of Evergrande’s bankruptcy. |
