Research On Credit Risk Assessment And Control Of Pharmaceutical Supply Chain Finance

In recent years,under the background of the implementation of the reform policies of the medical and health system such as the "two-ticket system","zero plus","4+7",the pharmaceutical circulation industry in China has achieved major industrial rectification,the industry concentration has gradually increased,resources have been constantly gathered to large pharmaceutical circulation enterprises,and the phenomenon of high prices of medical devices has been controlled.However,the implementation of policies such as the "two-ticket system" has led to the flattening development of the pharmaceutical circulation links,which has led to the widespread problems of the pharmaceutical circulation enterprises,such as serious capital occupation,increased asset-liability ratio,and increased financing demand.The application of supply chain finance can effectively alleviate the capital problems of pharmaceutical circulation enterprises.Different from the traditional credit financing mode,supply chain finance has more complex participants,and all links of supply chain finance business are more closely connected.The sources of credit risk are more diversified and the scope is wider.Once credit default occurs,it will bring huge losses to the participants of supply chain finance business.Therefore,it is necessary to understand the motivation,business model and risk source of supply chain finance,accurately evaluate the credit risk of supply chain finance and take appropriate risk prevention measures in time.On this basis,this paper takes the supply chain finance business of Sinopharm Holdings as a case study.First of all,this paper combs the meaning,mode,credit risk of supply chain finance and relevant literature of supply chain finance in the pharmaceutical industry;Secondly,this paper introduces the supply chain finance business model of Sinopharm Holdings,analyzes the reasons for its development of supply chain finance,and studies the source and risk transmission mechanism of Sinopharm Holdings’ supply chain finance credit risk;Then,select 11 enterprises in the supply chain of Sinopharm Holdings as samples,and use the modified KMV model and GARCH-CoVaR model to conduct empirical analysis on the financial credit risk of Sinopharm Holdings supply chain;Finally,according to the empirical results of measuring the financial credit risk of the supply chain of Sinopharm Holdings,this paper puts forward suggestions on credit risk prevention in the sixth chapter.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)Sinopharm Holdings,as a core enterprise,has its own large credit risk,which needs to be focused on;(2)There is a risk spillover effect between Sinopharm Holdings and its upstream suppliers,that is,Sinopharm Holdings’ default will cause its upstream suppliers to face greater risks;The default of upstream suppliers will also lead to greater risk of Sinopharm Holdings,and the empirical results show that Sinopharm Holdings has greater risk spillover effect on its upstream suppliers.In order to better prevent the occurrence of supply chain financial credit risk,this paper puts forward the following suggestions from the enterprise level,regulatory level and government level respectively:(1)Sinopharm Holdings,as a core enterprise,should actively prevent supply chain financial credit risk,optimize its own financial management,establish access mechanism for financing enterprises,and promote information sharing incentive mechanism;(2)The supply chain financial credit risk supervisor should use advanced information technology,Establish an information sharing platform with multiple departments and improve risk early warning capability with the help of financial technology;(3)The government should improve the relevant legal supervision mechanism as soon as possible,accelerate the construction of social credit system,and increase support for supply chain finance.