Study On Trade Efficiency And Potential Of China’s Rice Import Trade In RCEP Countries

The country is based on the people,people to food for security,food to rice first.Ensuring a secure and stable supply of rice is vital to China’s food security.China’s rice trade is a typical deficit trade.In recent years,domestic agricultural resources are relatively scarce and international rice prices are cheap,so China needs to import a large amount of rice to adjust the surplus and shortage.Rice import trade has also become an important factor affecting the stability of China’s rice market.The RCEP is an important trade agreement signed by 15 countries in the Asia-Pacific region,including China.Thailand,Myanmar,Vietnam,Cambodia and Laos are China’s major rice importers.The future development of China’s rice import trade is bound to be closely related to the progress of the RCEP.However,China’s rice import trade with RCEP countries has problems such as lack of stability and the risk of "centralization".Therefore,revealing the influencing factors of rice import trade between China and RCEP countries,exploring the efficiency and potential of rice import trade between China and RCEP countries,is of great theoretical and practical significance for reasonably adjusting China’s rice import trade policy,ensuring China’s rice security,and promoting the healthy,stable and sustainable development of rice import trade between China and RCEP countries.Based on the theory of comparative advantage and the theory of factor endowment,this paper systematically explains the efficiency and potential of rice import trade between China and RCEP countries by using the data of China’s rice import from RCEP countries during the period from 2007 to 2021.First,this paper introduces the basic national conditions and rice production of RCEP countries.Based on the time-series data of rice import trade between China and RCEP countries from2012 to 2021,this paper analyzes the characteristics of rice import trade from three aspects: scale,structure and country differences,so as to provide reference for estimating the efficiency and potential of rice import trade between China and RCEP countries.Secondly,the time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model and trade inefficiency model were constructed to analyze the influencing factors of rice import trade,and measure the import trade efficiency and import trade potential.Finally,it puts forward some policy suggestions to improve trade efficiency and expand trade potential.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)China’s rice import trade with RCEP countries lacks stability and is highly concentrated.From 2007 to 2021,the rice import trade volume between China and RCEP countries and its proportion in China’s total imported rice trade showed a fluctuating trend of first rising and then declining.In the past decade,China’s rice imports from RCEP countries have been relatively concentrated,mainly polished rice and broken rice.Among RCEP countries,China’s main rice importers are Vietnam,Thailand,Myanmar,Cambodia,Laos,Japan and South Korea.(2)Rice import trade between China and RCEP countries is unstable and highly concentrated.From 2007 to 2021,the rice import volume between China and RCEP countries and its proportion in China’s total rice import trade showed a fluctuating trend of first increasing and then decreasing.In the past decade,China’s rice imports from RCEP countries have been concentrated,mainly milled rice and broken rice.Among the RCEP countries,China’s major rice importers are Vietnam,Thailand,Myanmar,Cambodia,Laos,Japan and South Korea.(3)Rice import trade between China and RCEP countries is inefficient,and the market types are different.From 2007 to 2021,the average import efficiency of rice trade between China and RCEP countries is low,and the annual average is on the rise.When the RCEP countries are divided according to the import trade efficiency interval in 2021,Myanmar is a saturated market,Thailand,Vietnam and Cambodia are expanding markets,Japan and Laos are developing markets,and South Korea is an iceberg market.(4)The rice import trade potential between China and RCEP countries is huge and the differences are significant.The total import potential between China and major RCEP rice importers in 2021 is US $1.904 billion,with an untapped potential of US $520 million.In 2021,the import potential,untapped import potential and import market development value of rice between China and RCEP countries are different.Based on the above research conclusions,the following policy recommendations are put forward: first,continue to promote the diversification of trade and investment,improve the ability to resist risks;Second,upgrade bilateral infrastructure and connectivity and remove trade barriers.Third,formulate differentiated rice import trade policies to explore new trade growth points.