Research On The Impact Of Monetary Policy Uncertainty On The Mismatch Of Investment And Financing Terms For Enterprises

In the development process of Chinese enterprises,financing issues have always been a key factor restricting their development,specifically manifested in the difficulty of financing and mismatched terms,which can be more evident when the market environment fluctuates.Therefore,many enterprises have to choose to use short-term loans to cover long-term investment projects in order to alleviate capital constraints and improve competitiveness.However,this approach is essentially an investment and financing term mismatch,which can effectively alleviate the liquidity pressure of enterprises and ensure their continued operation in the short term.However,in the long term,it will cause enterprises to encounter financial difficulties and operational difficulties,and it is likely to transmit individual risks to the market.Considering the external policy environment,due to the fact that China is still in the stage of rapid economic development and the complex socio-economic situation,the government has issued relevant monetary policies with high frequency and strength,resulting in increased uncertainty in China’s monetary policy.Specifically,the number of monetary policy instruments in China is increasing,and the targets considered exceed traditional output and inflation targets.In recent years,attempts have been made to enhance financial stability by limiting risky loans while stabilizing the money supply.Therefore,when the level of uncertainty in monetary policy increases,the financing costs and investment needs of enterprises will be affected,leading to the mismatch of investment and financing terms.Based on the current situation of China’s economic development and relevant existing research,this article conducts theoretical analysis and proposes relevant assumptions from the perspective of monetary policy uncertainty.Therefore,this article uses the relevant data of A-share manufacturing listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2006 to 2020 for analysis,and calculates monetary policy uncertainty by constructing a mixed quantitative rule model of inflation rate,GDP growth rate,and real effective exchange rate.Subsequently,in order to study the mechanism of monetary policy uncertainty on the mismatch of investment and financing terms of enterprises,this paper uses fixed effect models and intermediary effect models to conduct research.In addition,through heterogeneity testing and quantile regression methods,this paper studies and analyzes the differential impact of monetary policy uncertainty on the degree of investment and financing term mismatch of different types of enterprises.The main conclusions of this article are as follows:(1)With the increase in monetary policy uncertainty,the degree of maturity mismatch in corporate investment and financing deepens;(2)The level of enterprise risk taking and the scale of bank credit play a certain intermediary effect in the relationship between the two.The rising uncertainty of monetary policy has,on the one hand,made it possible for banks as capital suppliers to adjust the credit term structure and scale in order to avoid risks,making it more difficult for enterprises to obtain long-term loans;On the other hand,due to the drastic changes in the policy environment,there are also potential development opportunities,whereby enterprises borrow short-term funds to develop long-term production and operation projects in order to gain a competitive advantage,resulting in an increase in capital demand.The strengthening of corporate financing constraints and the increase in investment demand have both led to an increase in the mismatch of corporate investment and financing terms.(3)Whether a company holds shares in a financial institution and whether its executives have a financial background play a moderating role in the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on the mismatch of investment and financing terms.When faced with rising levels of uncertainty in monetary policy,the mismatch of investment and financing terms will be relatively more serious for financial institutions that do not hold shares and companies with no financial background among senior executives.(4)In the quantile regression analysis,some enterprises’ risk preferences may actively choose the mismatch of investment and financing term structure.Whether this behavior is an occasional phenomenon or other factors remains to be investigated.The research conclusions of this article provide a reference for enterprises to rationally allocate the mismatch degree of investment and financing terms in a small range,and provide relevant theoretical basis for the government to scientifically formulate and implement monetary policies and reduce the impact of uncertainty on the economy.