| At present,China is at a historical juncture in achieving the second centenary goal.Faced with the complex international and domestic economic situation,achieving high-quality economic development is our goal.During the epidemic,stable monetary policy tools and efficient implementation of monetary policy effectively supported China’s economic transition from crisis to opportunity,achieving positive economic growth.Compared to 2022,the monetary policy statement in the 2023 government work report has shifted from "flexible and moderate" to "precise and powerful".Since the 1990 s,the People’s Bank of China has adopted a macro prudential monetary policy to regulate and influence the economic behavior of commercial banks and other financial institutions based on the constantly changing economic and financial situation,thereby affecting the consumption and investment behavior of economic entities and affecting prices,employment,and economic growth.The credit channel dominated by commercial banks plays an important role in the transmission channel of monetary policy,and the implementation effect of monetary policy is influenced by the policy behavior choices of commercial banks themselves.This paper analyzes the effectiveness of China’s monetary policy credit transmission channels based on four monetary policy measurement indicators,namely,the statutory deposit reserve ratio,the one-year basic loan interest rate,the7-day Interbank lending market rate,and the narrative monetary policy proxy variable,the Sun negative index,and explores the moderating effect of commercial banks’ liquidity and scale characteristics on the credit transmission efficiency of monetary policy.In order to analyze the effectiveness of China’s monetary policy credit transmission channels and the regulatory role of commercial bank liquidity and scale characteristics on the monetary policy credit transmission channels,this article mainly conducts research from the following aspects: Firstly,review and summarize the theoretical research on the monetary policy credit transmission mechanism by domestic and foreign scholars,and determine the main position of the monetary policy credit transmission channel.On this basis,summarize and compare the latest findings in existing research on the transmission efficiency of monetary policy credit channels based on bank liquidity and scale characteristics with the controversial traditional views;Secondly,analyze the development process of China’s monetary policy,the selection and measurement indicators of monetary policy tools,and the current situation of commercial banks’ credit business;Thirdly,using the theoretical model to comprehensively analyze the impact of four measurement indicators of China’s monetary policy,namely,the statutory deposit reserve ratio,the one-year basic loan interest rate,the 7-day Interbank lending market rate,and the narrative monetary policy proxy variable Sun Narrative index,on the credit of commercial banks,and further explore the impact mechanism of commercial banks’ liquidity and scale characteristics on the credit transmission efficiency of monetary policy,laying a solid theoretical foundation for empirical analysis;Fourthly,referring to Kashyap and Stein’s(2000)article,at the micro banking level,we use the balance sheet data of 33 commercial banks in China to measure the loan issuance growth rate,liquidity indicators(securities assets/total assets),and bank size characteristics of each bank.At the macro level,we comprehensively used the statutory deposit reserve ratio,one-year basic loan interest rate,7-day Interbank lending market interest rate and the Sun negative index to measure the tightness of monetary policy,and empirically tested the theoretical mechanism through the empirical analysis method of fixed effect panel regression.Fifth,on the basis of benchmark regression and cross regression,further analyze the robustness of the regression results through endogeneity analysis and robustness testing.And a dummy variable was generated from 33 commercial banks according to different types,sizes,and liquidity,and a cross regression analysis was conducted to test whether China’s monetary policy has heterogeneous effects on commercial banks with different characteristics.The final conclusion is:(1)The credit transmission channel of China’s monetary policy is smooth.(2)China’s monetary policy not only has a significant impact on small and medium-sized commercial banks,but also has a significant impact on large state-owned commercial banks and joint-stock commercial banks.(3)The liquidity assets of commercial banks in China did not play a "buffering role" during monetary policy shocks.(4)In the Interbank lending market market,compared with small and medium-sized urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks,large commercial banks and joint-stock commercial banks are more insensitive to market interest rates.In order to promote more smooth credit channels for China’s monetary policy,combined with the theoretical and empirical analysis results of this article,the following policy recommendations are proposed:firstly,through policy support and guidance,continuously strengthen the behavior choices of commercial banks in China along the monetary policy cycle,thereby ensuring the smooth transmission of monetary policy in China and achieving the "precise and powerful" monetary policy goals.Secondly,we should continuously improve measures such as interest rate marketization reform and financial system reform in China,promote the development of the financial market,maintain smooth channels of monetary policy credit,and vigorously support the development of the real economy.Third,in the Interbank lending market market,we should establish an effective information disclosure mechanism and credit evaluation mechanism,strengthen market supervision,and improve the activity of small and medium-sized banks in the Interbank lending market market.Fourth,under the existing regulatory system,strengthen the supervision and management of small and medium-sized banks,promote the standardization of their balance sheets,facilitate the supervision of the People’s Bank of China and the National Administration of Financial Regulation,and can obtain relatively complete data for empirical research. |
