Research On The Influencing Factors And Potential Of China-Vietnam Agricultural Trade

Since the resumption of diplomatic relations between China and Vietnam in 1991,the economic and trade exchanges between China and Vietnam have become increasingly close,and the trade relations have developed very rapidly.At present,China has become Vietnam’s largest trading partner,largest importer and second largest exporter,indicating that China plays a vital role in Vietnam’s trade.At present,China has become Vietnam’s largest trading partner,Vietnam’s second largest exporter and Vietnam’s largest importer,which shows that China plays a crucial role in Vietnam’s foreign trade.At the same time,as a member of China-Asean Free Trade Area,Vietnam and China carry out comprehensive and in-depth economic and trade exchanges,which is conducive to promoting the deepening of regional trade.Since the normalization of bilateral relations,the cooperation between China and Vietnam in many fields such as economy and agriculture has been deepening day by day,and the trade volume of agricultural products has also been increasing,which not only contributes to the economic development and social stability of the two countries,but also can deepen the cooperation between China and ASEAN Free Trade Area to a certain extent.In the context of the Belt and Road Initiative,China and Vietnam have increasingly close agricultural technology exchanges,which is conducive to enhancing the agricultural scientific and technological innovation capacity of both sides.This paper analyzes the development status of agricultural trade in Vietnam,including trade scale,structure,competitiveness and complementarity.On this basis,this paper makes a detailed analysis of the current development of agricultural trade between China and Vietnam from three aspects: comparative advantage,factor endowment and national competitiveness.Through the import and export data of agricultural products between China and Vietnam from 2006 to 2020 in the United Nations trade database,the random frontier gravity model is used to explore the factors affecting the trade volume,and then the influencing factors are empirically analyzed and the trade potential at the overall and subdivided level of China’s agricultural products exported to Vietnam is calculated.Finally,it analyzes the trade potential,trade space and trade mode of China’s agriculture to Vietnam,as well as the development direction of China’s agricultural trade with Vietnam in the future.After a series of in-depth and detailed discussions,the following conclusions are mainly obtained: The bilateral agricultural trade volume between China and Vietnam is expanding the development trend,the cooperation pattern of agricultural products is diversified,and the economic and trade ties between the two sides are constantly deepening,showing strong complementarity.Through empirical analysis,there are many factors affecting China-Vietnam agricultural trade,such as the economic development level,agricultural added value,logistics performance index and common boundary of the two countries.The study found that China’s GDP,Vietnamese population size,government efficiency,agricultural production,agricultural index,agricultural added value,monetary freedom,logistics performance index,common boundary and common language are positively related to China’s export of agricultural products to Vietnam;China’s population size,Vietnam’s trade freedom,whether to join the "Belt and Road" initiative and capital distance are negatively related to China’s export of agricultural products to Vietnam.Secondly,according to the trade efficiency of China’s agricultural products exported to Vietnam,and the trade potential of the two countries will reach 0.94 in 2020,that is,the trade potential is "pioneering",that is to say,there is still a huge space for the development of bilateral trade between the two countries.Therefore,based on the above research conclusions,it is proposed to give full play to the specific advantages of China and Vietnam to achieve differentiated development;improve the quality standard of agricultural products to ensure product safety;strengthen infrastructure construction and improve logistics service level;actively play regional economic and trade cooperation policies and promote the process of agricultural modernization.