Research On The Influencing Factors And Potential Of Agricultural Trade Between China And Russia

Under the background of the “Belt and Road”,the development of China and Russia agricultural trade has an important impact on deepening the economic cooperation between the two countries.In order to better improve the efficiency of agricultural trade between China and Russia,scientifically measure the potential of agricultural trade and promote the trade of ag ricultural products between China and Russia,this paper analyzes the influencing factors of agricultural trade and the trade potential of agricultural products between China and Russia.This paper first analyzes the literature at home and abroad,and then defines the concept of agricultural products,agricultural products trade and agricultural product trade potential.Subsequently,it analyzes the trade situation of agricultural products between China and Russia through the use of literature search method,comparative analysis method and quantitative research method.Using comparative advantage theory,intra-industry trade theory and other related theories have made further theoretical analysis on the status quo of agricultural trade between China and Russi a.On the basis of theoretical analysis,this paper quantitatively describes the scale of agricultural trade China and Russia,the structure of China and Russia agricultural trade products and the trade status of agricultural products.In the empirical analysis part,based on theoretical analysis and quantitative analysis,the corresponding hypotheses are proposed.By comparing the data with the correlation test and the stationarity test,the applicability of the data is verified,and the test results show that the data is stable.On this basis,the stochastic frontier gravity model(SFGM)is constructed and the applicability of the model is tested.The empirical results are used to further analyze the main influencing factors of agricultural trade between the two countries,and then the agricultural trade efficiency and trade potential of China and Russia are measured.The results of the study show that factors such as TCI and the “Belt and Road Initiative” have a significant positive impact on agricultural trade;the distance between trading countries,the average tariff level and the financial crisis have a significant negative impact on agricultural trade;Factors such as the total per capita GDP,the growth of the population,and the per capita income difference between the two countries have no significant impact on the agricultural trade between the two countries.The efficiency of agricultural trade between China and Russia in 2002-2017 is generally on the rise,but there is still room for improvement in the agricultural trade potential between China and Russia.Finally,based on the results of empirical analysis,the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.The main conclusions of the study are: to expand the scale of agricultural trade between China and Russia,and to promote the development of agricultural trade between China and Russia by starting with factors affecting agricultural trade between China and Russia.The trade efficiency of China and Russia has not reached the opti mal state,and it is in a state of "under-trade".The agricultural products trade between China and Russia has great growth potential,and the agricultural trade between the two countries still has a large room for improvement.