Research On The Default Risk Contagion Of Leveraged Leasing

Leveraged leasing is an important means to alleviate the financial constraints of tenants,and the contagion of tenant default risk affects the effectiveness of leveraged leasing business.The mechanism and measurement of the contagion of default risk in leveraged leasing are key issues for participants in leveraged leasing business to prevent risks.Based on the business process characteristics of leveraged leasing,this thesis analyzes the contagion mechanism and influencing factors of the default risk of leveraged leasing by literature research,it is concluded that factors such as enterprise size,market sensitivity and information sharing affect the risk of default contagion of leveraged leasing,and the risk contagion carrier is the leasehold,information,etc.,the mechanism of risk contagion includes chain contagion and network contagion.Taking the lessee as the research object,four variables are selected: the scale of the lessee’s enterprise,the market sensitivity of the lessee,the degree of information sharing between the lessee and the lessor,and the degree of enterprise correlation.Based on the Hidden Markov process,a chain contagion intensity model for the default risk of the leveraged leasing lessee is constructed to analyze the contagion intensity of the default risk of the leveraged leasing lessee.The degree of enterprise association and market sensitivity in the model are positively correlated with the contagion intensity of lessee default risk,while the degree of information sharing and enterprise size are negatively correlated with the contagion intensity of lessee default risk.The simulation verifies the above relationship.Expand the research perspective to network contagion,simulate the default risk contagion network composed of leveraged leasing participants and their cooperative enterprises through the theory of multi-local world,and analyze the generation process of the network.Introduce the four variables of enterprise credit,risk warning ability,risk repair ability,and risk tolerance into the conceptual framework of the propagation dynamic model to analyze the contagion range of default risk in leveraged leasing.The enterprise credit,risk warning ability,risk tolerance ability,and risk repair ability in the model are all negatively correlated with the risk contagion range,and the simulation verifies the above relationship.