Research On Risk Contagion Of Supply Interruption Of Key Core Products

The supply interruption risk and contagion of key core products constrain the performance of the supply chain.The mechanism and measurement of supply interruption risk and contagion of key core products are hot topics in the field of supply chain risk management.Based on the business process characteristics of the supply of key core products in the integrated circuit industry,using the literature research method,this thesis analyzes the risk transmission mechanism and influencing factors of supply interruption of key core products,and summarizes the factors such as information diffusion degree,profitability,and business volume scale that affect the transmission of supply interruption risk.Materials and information are risk transmission media,and the supply business relationship of key core products is the risk transmission path.Based on the one-dimensional non-stationary transmission mechanism of Fourier’s law,this thesis introduces four variables: profitability,independent research and development ability,information diffusion degree,and business volume scale to construct a risk contagion intensity model for key core product supply interruption,and analyzes the measurement of risk contagion intensity for key core product supply interruption.The profitability,independent research and development capability,and information diffusion degree in the model hurt the contagion intensity of supply interruption risk,while the scale of business volume has a positive impact on the contagion intensity of supply interruption risk.The simulation verifies the above relationship.The research perspective is extended to the network risk contagion of supply disruption of key core products.Using the Markov chain and the principle of communication dynamics,the network risk contagion density model of supply disruption of key core products is constructed,and the network risk contagion density of supply disruption of key core products is studied.The degree of enterprise nodes and the number of defaults by key core product suppliers in the initial state have a positive impact on the contagion density of supply interruption risk in the model;The increase in the degree of enterprise nodes and the number of defaults by key core product suppliers in the initial state hurts the time when the contagion density of supply interruption risk reaches its peak.Simulation verifies the above relationship.