Research On The Value Evaluation Of Innovative Pharmaceutical Enterprises In The Science And Technology Innovation Board Based On The DCF-BT Mode

"The 14 th Five-Year Plan period" is a critical period for adhering to innovation-driven development and shaping new advantages for development across the board.Since the deepening of medical reform in 2015,encouraging innovation has become an important direction of medical reform in China.The opening of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the close introduction of a series of favourable policies have brought new opportunities for the development of innovative drug companies in China.Against the backdrop of the country’s encouragement of research and creation of new drugs,innovative drug enterprises,as one of the key areas supported by the Science and Technology Innovation Board,have received much attention from all parties in the capital market,and the construction of an applicable value assessment system for innovative drug industry in SSE STAR Market is a practical issue that needs to be addressed urgently.The innovative drug industry in SSE STAR Market generally has characteristics such as high technology content,difficulty in achieving rapid profitability and long R&D cycle,and the value of enterprises mainly comes from numerous new drug product pipelines.Specifically,each new drug product pipeline is divided into pre-clinical,clinical trial and launch phases according to its stage.For the new drug product pipeline in the market launch phase,the discounted cash flow model is modified by combining the life cycle theory and 5P model of the drug;for the new drug product pipeline in the clinical trial phase,the BT model of the real option method is applied by combining the success rate of the drug’s development.In order to verify the validity of the DCF-BT model,a representative Reme Gen was selected as a case study.The results of the study show that the DCF-BT model has arrived at an enterprise value of RMB 16.537 billion for Reme Gen,with a variance rate of 8.04%;the market research rate method was chosen as a reference indicator for the valuation,and the valuation results were similar to the DCF-BT model.Taking into account the influence of relevant external factors,this paper concludes that the DCF-BT model is reasonable,feasible and valid for assessing the value of innovative pharmaceutical companies on the Science and Technology Venture Exchange.