The Evaluation Of Innovative Drug R&D Project

Generic drugs and imported drugs have dominated the pharmaceutical market in China,especially in the key areas of imported drugs occupying a large share of the market.It is the key competitive advantage of domestic pharmacy developing enterprises that planning new medicine research based on the company capability.However,innovative drug research is a process which requires large investment and long clinical test cycle,high R&D risk combined.At this time,both pharma and investment companies urgently need a more rational assessment method.Traditional assessment methods ignored the stage of investment,the uncertainty of value and the flexible value of management,which leads to shortsighted decision-making,insufficient investment and even loss of competition opportunities.Based on the external financing purposes of pharmaceutical R&D enterprises,this paper focuses on the characteristics of innovative drug research and development projects,and uses real option theory as a tool to analyze the development process of general innovative drugs.The value formation process of R&D projects of innovative drug is different from ordinary assets.It has the characteristics of long cycle,multi-stage,high risk and high input.Based on this,this paper discusses the applicability of traditional evaluation methods and real option evaluation methods,and believes that the real option method is more suitable for project.In order to explore the value evaluation path of R&D projects by using real option method,this paper takes B Company as an example.Firstly,it identifies the types of real options existing in the project,and analyzes the combination form of these options to identify a causal compound option.Secondly,this paper takes the improved Geske model based on B-S model as the evaluation model of real option method,and discusses the calculation methods of various parameters.After calculating the option value,this paper analyzes the sensitivity of the model and finds that the option value has the highest sensitivity to the real price of the underlying asset,and the investment cost is second highest sensitivity to the real price.The parameters input by the traditional method and the real option method are single values.Considering the uncertainty of the parameter estimation,the singlevalued parameter cannot guarantee the accuracy of the result.This paper explored the method of optimizing the Geske model using trapezoidal fuzzy numbers.The trapezoidal fuzzy number used the prediction interval instead of the absolute singlevalued prediction,which improved the defect of the input single-valued parameter in the original model,thus improving the accuracy of the option value evaluation result to some extent.This paper has certain research value and significance: First,it reviews the sensitivity of the case study conclusions and improves the evaluation path when using the real option method.Secondly,on the basis of systematically discussing the real option method,combined with the characteristics of innovative drug research and development projects,the fuzzy number theory is introduced,and the calculation model is optimized and modified to make it more accurate to adapt to the actual situation.Compared with the original model,it can bring many advantages,such as: fuzzy Geske model gives the project manager more decision-making flexibility;its evaluation conclusions cover more information,more reference value;its ability to adapt to project uncertainty is stronger.