| Plantation production is an important component of food security,and Jiangsu Province has been a major grain-producing province in China for many years,with the same development trend as the national grain production,and its geographical layout of grain production and internal differences in the rural economy are typical and representative.With the development of agricultural modernization,on the basis of developing characteristic agriculture and creating an advantageous rural product production area in Jiangsu Province,it is necessary to study the spatial and temporal characteristics of the agglomeration of plantation production at the county scale in Jiangsu Province and further explore the economic effects of the agglomeration of plantation industry,which will help to rationalize the layout of plantation industry in Jiangsu Province and promote the development of agricultural economy,with theoretical and practical significance in line with the needs of the times.This paper uses county statistics from 2006 to 2020 to analyse the spatial and temporal characteristics and evolution patterns of plantation agglomeration in Jiangsu Province from the perspective of plantation and the sown area of eight major crops.Firstly,the level of agglomeration and spatial pattern of the plantation industry in Jiangsu Province were analysed using the locational Gini coefficient,production concentration index,locational entropy index,global and local Moran index measures;then the spatial Durbin model was used,with land input,capital input and labour input as control variables for analysing the economic effects of agglomeration,to examine the comprehensive and regional effects of the agglomeration of the plantation industry in Jiangsu Province on the rural economy,and the following conclusions were obtained:(1)Jiangsu Province’s plantation industry as a whole shows significant geographical clustering characteristics,and the degree of clustering of various crops is increasing.2006-2020,the overall clustering characteristics of the plantation industry as a whole is significant,and shows a fluctuating upward trend,with the overall clustering level reaching its highest in 2019;from the perspective of the clustering areas,the areas with high production concentration index are mainly concentrated in northern Jiangsu,and the clustering of the plantation industry in northern Jiangsu The development momentum is rapid.(2)There are differences in the distribution patterns of geographical agglomeration of different crops,with the dominant crop production areas within each region changing over time and concentrating towards some specific counties.Feng County and Xuzhou City District in northern Jiangsu have a prominent advantage in maize production;Jurong City and Lishui District in southern Jiangsu,Haimen City and Qidong City in central Jiangsu,and Feng County in northern Jiangsu form a monopoly production advantage in cotton.(3)Plantation production exhibits obvious positive spatial autocorrelation characteristics at the county level,with a strong spatial dependence.As the Moran index increases over time,it can be found that the number of high-high agglomerations tends to increase and then decrease,while low-low agglomerations tend to expand,which also reflects to a certain extent that the agglomerations of the plantation industry show convergence.(4)There is a significant positive contribution of the geographical agglomeration of the plantation sector to the growth of the agricultural economy.There is a significant positive impact of plantation agglomeration on the agricultural economy,mainly from the positive in indirect effect.Agricultural machinery inputs also have a strong impact on the agricultural economy,with a high contribution of agricultural technology.Fertiliser inputs do not contribute to agricultural economic growth,and there is a significant negative relationship.(5)The economic effects of geographical agglomeration in the plantation industry vary significantly between regions.Based on the distinctive characteristics of economic and resource endowment differences within Jiangsu province,it is found that the three regions of southern,central and northern Jiangsu all show a positive contribution to the agricultural economy in terms of the level of agglomeration,specifically,northern Jiangsu has the strongest effect,followed by southern Jiangsu and central Jiangsu the lowest.Based on the above empirical analysis and research findings,this paper puts forward policy recommendations for the regional agglomeration of plantation production in Jiangsu Province.The first is to give full play to the advantages of regional agglomeration of plantation production in Jiangsu Province,and the first is to give full play to the advantages of local special crops based on "soil" and "special" production.The third is to strengthen the technology promotion in the agglomeration area and increase the control of chemical fertilizer and pesticide use;the fourth is to give full play to the combined effect of resources,markets and policies to ensure the sustainable and stable development of agriculture.Through the above measures,the agglomeration of planting industry in Jiangsu Province will be transformed into a driving force for the development of agricultural industry in Jiangsu Province,promoting the growth of agricultural economy and ultimately realising the sustainable development of planting industry. |
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