Study On The Relationship Between Cultivated Land Area And The Level Of Economic Development In Jiangsu Privince Based On Geographical Weighted Regression Model

Land is the material basis of human survival and development,and is the foundation of modern social and economic development.Cultivated land resource is one of the most important land resources to support the sustainable development of our human society and ecological environment.China's cultivated land is difficult to match the large population in the absolute number and overall quality.How to solve the contradiction between economic and arable land as well as people has become the key to the sustainable development of economic,social and ecological in our country.Throughout the thirty years of reform and opening-up,the cultivated land area in Jiangsu province has continued to decline with the rapid development of economy.Known as "a good district with abundant fish and rice",Jiangsu Province has better cultivated land resource.But the contradiction between cultivated land protection and economic development,population growth and the reduction of arable land is still very prominent.This thesis takes Jiangsu Province as the research object,to explore the relationship between the cultivated land area and the level of economic development.This thesis has its own pertinence in Jiangsu Province,but also has certain reference significance the other less-developed regions in China.According to the collected data and the use of related software,assume the traditional long time sequence angle,analysis the relationship between cultivated land area the level of economic development in Jiangsu province in status,quantity and degree.By using principal component analysis model,calculated the three main social and economic driving factors to the change of the cultivated land area in Jiangsu Province.Then choose the dominant factor,using ArcGIS to analyze the influence of the dominant factors to the change of cultivated land area and its spatial-temporal variety regularity by Geographically Weighted Regression model.The results show that,the quantitative analysis in long time scales,the cultivated land area is decreasing rapidly while economics rapid development in Jiangsu province over the past thirty years of reform and opening-up.It has made a really large difference in the level of economic development and the pressure of cultivated land protection in prefecture level city.Nevertheless,this research method avoids the spatial differences of cultivated land area and economic development level;it cannot explain the internal changes.Through analysis of the status,quantity,degree of cultivated land area in Jiangsu province and the level of economic development,we can only come to the conclusion that the relationship between cultivated land area and economic development level is contradictory.The economic development is bound to reduce the cultivated land,and the protection of cultivated land will decrease the level of economic development.GDP,the proportion of the third industry,the total population are the main factors to change the cultivated land area in every city,on the other hand,analyzing by the method of principal component and GWR model.In the continued economy development of Jiangsu Province,we can foresee that the contradictions between cultivated land protection and economic development will be eased,while the contradiction between population growth and cultivated land decrease will remain.In addition,the optimization of industrial structure will be helpful to the sustainable development of economy in Jiangsu province,it will improve the economic growth mode,making it a resource saving and environment friendly,sound and rapid development.With the strengthening of cultivated land protection consciousness and the implementation of protection policy,our country take cultivated land protection into account while adjust the industrial structure,to eliminate,update,upgrade on the existing basis,and will completely change the economic development situation which depending on the land occupation.