Method And Model Of Earthquake Emergency Decision Making On Traffic System

In order to improve the efficiency of emergency rescuing work after earthquakes,it is demanding necessary to carry out special research on the method and model of theemergency decision making, and then establish a decision aid system considering thecharacteristics of the traffic system after earthquakes. It could provide the modelsupport to develop the decision aid system of the emergent strategy for the trafficsystem after earthquakes. It would contribute to achieving the intelligent trafficdispatching decision making after earthquakes. The bi-level programming method, thestochastic simulation method and the fuzzy decision making method are introducedinto the analysis of the emergency dispatching decision making. And the emergencydecision optimization problem based on the unblocked reliability analysis of the trafficsystem is emphasized.The main content of the paper are as follows:(1) The paper introduces the traditional four-stage method and the modifiedfour-stage method for traffic demand forecasting, analyses the traffic demand features,establishes a demand forecasting model for earthquake emergency traffic, and providesthe three-stage method for earthquake emergency traffic demand forecasting. Thepaper analyses the seismic vulnerability of bridge and road units, gives the earthquakedisaster grade, deduces the critical interval of seismic damage index, puts forward theinterval of earthquake affecting coefficient, and then builds their evaluation model ofpossible capacity. After analyzing the capacity of road network and its calculationmethod, it gives the calculation process of the road network capacity.(2) The paper introduces the basic concept of units and the traffic systemreliability, reviews the typical layout of road network and its performance, and thenanalyses the factors that affect the seismic performance of the traffic system. Byintroducing the disjoint minimal path algorithm, the paper analyses the connectivityreliability of the traffic system after earthquakes. On the basis of classification standardof highway service level, the paper defines the evaluation threshold of highway servicelevel after earthquakes. Monte Carlo method is described in detail, the unblockedreliability is analyzed and the evaluation method based on the service level of theunblocked reliability of the traffic system is proposed. Then its evaluation criteria andthe process of evaluation optimization are given. These provide a theoretical basis forthe study on emergency decision making method of the traffic system afterearthquakes. (3) Scientific emergency decision making is a powerful guarantee for efficientlycarrying out post-earthquake relief work. This thesis recommends the basic theory ofdecision-making, analyses the fuzzy decision making method and the processingmethod of data standardization. The decision making of earthquake emergency servicespot location is an important basis of earthquake emergency rescue work. This thesisanalyses the uncertainty of the selection of earthquake emergency service spot location,introduces the concept of intuitionistic fuzzy numbers and interval-valued intuitionisticfuzzy numbers. At the same time, it defines the score function of interval intuitionisticfuzzy number and the accurate function interval intuitionistic fuzzy number on thebasis of analyzing the relationship between them. And then it puts forward the collationof interval intuitionistic fuzzy numbers on the basis of the score function and precisefunction. The paper builds a model of site selection of earthquake emergency servicespot which the constraint is contained in the interval intuitionistic fuzzy parameters.Meanwhile it puts forward a model algorithm based on the collation of intervalintuitionistic fuzzy number.(4) The paper builds an emergency decision optimization model of single servicespot and multiple demand spots on the basis of fuzzy clustering analysis, presents asolution of the model. By discussing the feasibility of the information that described bythe form of interval number, the paper deduces the algorithm of probability degree ofinterval numbers. Then a emergency decision optimization model of single service spotand multiple demand spots is built upon the possibility degree of interval numbers. Andits solution is given. Considering the dynamic process based on time chain foremergency material scheduling, the material dispatching to the demand spots wasassumed to be continuously consumed. Then, the optimization model based on thebi-level programming for multi demand spots and multi service spots is established, andthe dynamic optimization solution to the bi-level programming problem is also provided.Finally, the method and system of the assignment optimization decision making basedon the unblocked reliability of the traffic system is built.(5) By introducing the scenario earthquake method, with integrated research on themodel and method of earthquake emergency decision making for traffic system, thepaper puts forward the decision-making optimization method of earthquake emergencyservice spot location for traffic system and post-earthquake traffic emergencydeployment, and then builds a set of earthquake emergency decision-makingoptimization method and system based on the scenario earthquake. The paper carriesout a simulation to apply the models, the methods and the optimization theory byintroducing a scenario earthquake.