Empirical Analysis On Carbon Source/Sequestration Of Farming In China

Since opening up and reform of China, our economic strength, comprehensive national strength and international competitiveness have obtained sustainable and fast development.The process of Chinese economic development is accompanied by a large amount of energy especially fossil energy consumption.Heavy use of coal in industrial production process, a large amount of chemical fertilizers, pesticides and agricultural machinery used in the process of agricultural production, directly leads to the excessive discharge of greenhouse gas. Elevated atmospheric concentrations, especially the carbon concentration easily trigger climate warming. Global warming has destroyed the balance of ecological system of the earth and constituted a direct and serious threat to human survival and development.From the concept of agriculture, this article summarizes the present status of agricultural production in China, calculates carbon emissions and carbon absorption of our agricultural production, based on this points out that China’s current agricultural production is a high carbon emission mode, indicates that excessive carbon emissions has an adverse effect on agricultural production from the perspective of theory and practice, then pointes out that our country should develop low carbon agriculture for the mitigation of climate change.Then pointed to mitigate climate change, we should develop low carbon agriculture.This paper begins with describing the fundamental position of agriculture in the national economy, elaborates the objective facts that climate change affects agriculture production and agriculture is of a dual character,both "carbon source" and "Carbon sequestration",through which indicates that agriculture also should change the mode of production,turn high carbon agriculture into low carbon agriculture. Further analyzes the characteristics and functions of low carbon agriculture and pointes out that the development of low carbon agriculture is the real choice of our country agriculture.This Paper estimates the carbon emissions of the agricultural production process with IPCC and the conclusionof relevant research from Chinese scholar.And at the same time it measures carbon emissions caused by fossil energy consumption in the process of agricultural production and the intensity of energy, energy structure and level of economic development are shown to influence carbon emissions. On the basis, it shows that the energy structure and energy intensity is the main factors affecting agricultural carbon emissions. The paper also applies the method of grey correlative degree analysis to measure the important degree of China’s main agricultural input in agricultural production.The conclusion provides the basis for variable selection.which help the author anysis the relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and the main input factors through some methods of quantitative economic analysis. Based on the analysis, this chapter concludes the agricultural production of our country and puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions.To quantitative studies on the importance degree of major factor for agricultural carbon emissions, grey correlative degree analysis method is used to measure several main factors of agricultural production.then the method of regression analysis is utilized to quantitative the long term equilibrium effect from structure and elasticity on chemical fertilizer application and agricultural carbon emissions. Granger causality test and cointegration test are employed to analyze the short-term fluctuations between fertilizer application and agricultural carbon emissions, then a VEC model is built to analyze the impulse response through agriculture mechanical farm, chemical fertilizer impact to carbon emissions. Finally it is pointed out that agricultural machinery and agricultural chemical fertilizer has positive long-term impact on agricultural carbon and the agricultural production factors influence agricultural carbon emissions. In order to reduce carbon emissions in agriculture, the State shall apply rational project distribution to agricultural production process, try to reduce the energy consumption of fossil energy,to develop and popularize new energy type, make economical use of water, electricity, film, pesticides and other elements of the input in order to achieve agricultural production low carbonizationThis paper also estimates the carbon sequestration to china’s agricultural production process by using the conclusions of IPCC and relevant academic research about that.And at the same time, with the method of comparative analysis, the paper compares the carbon emissions of agricultural production with carbon absorption and calculates the "net carbon sequestration " index. Through this points out that considering the soil carbon sequestration effect, present stage the whole agricultural carbon emissions is larger than carbon absorption. In order to quantify the effect on agricultural carbon absorption and the change on agricultural planting structure, regressive analysis is used to reflect the long-term equilibrium impact between the maize cultivated area and agricultural carbon absorption through structure and elasticity analysis. Thanks to corn planting area is the fastest growing planting area, this chapter use corn planting area as an example to stand for the change of crop planting structure to analyze the relationship between change of crop planting structure and agricultural carbon sequestration. Granger causality test and cointegration analysis method are used to calculate the volatility of short-term impact of agricultural carbon sequestration and crop planting structure. A VEC model is built to reflect impulse response between agricultural carbon sequestration and crop planting structure. Last it is indicated that the the acreage impact of corn crop would bring a long-term stability positive response to agricultural carbon sequestration. In ordre to raise agricultural carbon sequestration, gricultural planting structure should be rationally readjusted, new productive should be promoted and crop strains and advanced technology of agriculture should be developed. Angle the impact on mitigation of agricultural oneself to climate change.Finally, based on summarizing the above analysis and the advanced experience of foreign countries, some advices are given to mitigae climate change and grow low carbon agriculture. The paper points out that low-carbon agriculture should be carried out from three aspects, such as the implementation of the country level from technologyl and policy and financial support, reducing carbon emissions and increasing in carbon sequestration. The article puts forward some measures to all possible measures.