| Industry structure as a part of industrial structure is in the core position in research of industrial structure. The changes of industry structure influence not only the economic growth but also the ecological environment improvement, so to implement the policy of environment protection would lead to the changes of industry structure. How do the changes of industry structure influence environment in China, how to organize the activities of industry production meanwhile protecting environment and maintaining economic growth? These problems are to be answered in the thesis. The thesis consists of five pasts as follow:Part one: document summary and elementary theories introduction. It is to put the research findings of relevant scholars in order from the relationship between industry structure and environment, the research and applied situation of grey GM(1, 1) model, and the research and applied situation of input-output method to determine the relations and differences between this thesis and the existing research findings. In addition, the research also introduces briefly the theories of industrial structure changes from the alteration rules, theoretic interpretation and influence factors about the industrial structure changes; summarizes the grey system theories from the differences among grey system theory as an uncertainty study method and the other uncertainty methods, the elementary concepts, elementary principles and main contents of grey system theory; introduces the elementary theories of input-output from the structure of input-output table, data specification and the main balance relations. In a word, the research is based on the theory of industrial structure changes, grey system theory and the input-output theory.Part two: studying the matrix about direct consumes coefficients of input-output with the non-statistic survey based on the grey GM(1, 1) and the RAS method. The matrix about direct consume coefficients of input-output in the future may be forecasted using the grey GM(1,1)model and adjusted using the RAS method, which is based on the existing matrixes about direct consume coefficient of input-output. Hence, it could be solved to draw up an input-output table may produce higher costs and publish the input-output table is later in practice, while it may provide a great deal of elementary data and an analyzing tool for studying the change rules of industrial structure.Part three: studying the quantitative relationship between the environment and the changes of industry structure in China. Firstly, measuring the direct coefficient of waste produced in industry product departments in 1997, 2002 and 2007 based on the statistic situation of industry wastes in China, and using these coefficients to measure the complete coefficient of waste produced in industry product departments in 1997, 2002, and 2007 in China. Secondly, based on the synthetically complete coefficients of waste produced, the industry product departments are classified into the high-grade pollution industry, the medium pollution industry, the low-grade pollution industry and the tiny pollution industry in 1997, 2002 and 2007 in China. Lastly, especially studying that how the changes of trade structure influence upon the environment in China. Actually, the research has shown that it would maintain economic growth and improve the quality of ecological environment by changing the industry structure, based on strictly to restrict the export of products from the high-grade pollution industry or the medium pollution industry and the import of products from low-grade pollution industry or the tiny pollution industry, while actively to encourage the import of products from the high-grade pollution industry or the medium pollution industry and the export of products from the low-grade pollution industry or the tiny pollution industry.Part four: researching the quantitative relationship between the economic growth and the changes of industry structure. Firstly, the paper has studied the evolvement characteristics of industry structure from 1987 to 2012 in China. Secondly, thesis has researched the change reasons of industry structure and the growth characteristics of industry product departments respectively with the attribution matrix of input-output from 2002 to 2007 and from 2007 to 2012. Lastly, using the coefficients of influence, the coefficients of responsivity, the synthetic complete coefficient of waste produced and the grey GM(1, 1) model, the thesis has studied systematically the change trends of industry structure in China. Actually, the research has shown that the industry product departments which have the stronger role of pulling or the stronger role of supporting may be the high-grade pollution industry departments or the medium pollution industry departments.Part five: studying the problems to forecast the volume of wastes produced in the industry product departments among the industrial chains with the characteristics of circular economy. Firstly, after introducing the Leslie model about animal breeding, putting forward the basic idea about constructing a model to measure the volume of wastes produced in industry product departments by simulating the Leslie model about animal breeding, which imitates the volume of wastes produced in industry product department as the number of animal in the Leslie model about animal breeding. Secondly, constructing an industrial chain with the basic characteristics of circular economy based on the change of industry structure in the future and the relationship between the economic growth and the change of industry structure. Lastly, the research has measured the volume of wastes produced among the industry product departments in the industrial chain in 2010, 2015 and 2020 respectively, which based on the volume of wastes produced among industry product departments in the industrial chain and the technologic level of dealing with wastes in 2005 and the improved Leslie model about animal breeding. Actually, the research has shown that it is possible to forecast the volume of wastes produced among the industry product departments in a special industrial chain with the characteristics of circular economy and base on the improved the Leslie model about animal breeding, and the volume of wastes produced in these industry product departments would be reduced significantly because of these industry product departments would be in the industrial chain with characteristics of circular economy.In a word, the Part one with document summary and basic theories introduction established the theory and bases of methods in the research. The part two, which forecasted the matrix of direct consume coefficient among industry product departments in 2012, 2017, and 2022, established the base of measuring the change trend of industry structure in China in the Part four. Using the results of the part three which mainly measured the synthetic complete coefficient of wastes produced in industry product departments, the research not only classified the industry product departments into the high-grade pollution industry, the medium pollution industry, the low-grade pollution industry and the tiny pollution industry, but also provided the support for analyzing the relationship among the changes of industry structure and the economic growth and the ecological environment improvement. Especially, the research has shown that the changes of trade structure as a part of industry structure have an important influence upon the environment, and properly adjusted the industry structure contributed to relief the press of resources, environment while maintaining the fast economic growth. The Part three, which classified the industry departments based on the different pollution levels, and part four, which analyzed change trends of industry structure, have established the bases for measuring the volume of wastes produced among industry product departments in the industrial chain with the characteristics of circular economy under the help of the improved Leslie model about animal breeding in the Part five. |
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