Plan Based Intelligent Decision Support Model For Emergency Of Geohazard

Crustal fracture activities is universal because of China’s diversity morphology and complex geology, and human activities are very frequent, thus China is one of the countries in which there are the most serious geological disasters and the most threatened population in the world. Many geological disasters related to geological process, such as collapse, landslide, mudslide and ground sink, is widely distributed in China. Because of the impact of extreme weather events, earthquake and construction, geohazards in recent years have occurred frequently which affected sustainable development of social and economic. With the rapid development of social and economic, infrastructure construction and development of water resources and mineral resources continues to influence geological environment. Meanwhile climate changes and earthquakes tend to be more active in the early years of this century. From the inside and outside cause of geohazards, the occurrence of geological disasters in China will present a trend of variety, wide distribution and high frequency. It is of practical significance to improve the geohazard emergency response ability so as to minimize the loss caused by disasters through making full use of information technology in the process of emergency management and decision-making.Emergency response process of geohazards usually involves several cross-regional and cross-domain departments, thus coordination and cooperation between departments is necessary, and information resource sharing and collaborative service is the basis of the emergency decision support system. With the improving of the geohazard emergency management informatization level, spatial information technology has also been applied to many aspects of the geohazard emergency management and decision support. But as the main basis of decision-making, emergency plans of geohazards made by all levels of departments are still mainly existed as static text in the form of natural language at present. So much shortage is still existed in the process of emergency decision-making.(1)Process of geohazard emergency decision-making requires information sharing and services collaboration among several departments. Now much information needed during decision-making is got through asking to the relevant departments by artificial way after geological disaster happened, which wastes a lot of precious time, and it is difficult to quickly realize information fusion and decision support analysis.(2)Knowledge of static text plans is unstructured, which cannot provide sufficient information for emergency decision-making process or implement sharing and reuse of emergency plan knowledge. So it is difficult to support decision-making effectively.(3)Emergency plans are established based on the experience of emergency disposal, but the disaster is usually unpredictable. Thus it has great limitations to cope with unexpected situations based on text plans. For example, emergency resources are not enough, emergency power is changed, and information is uncertain.The study of this thesis aims to help decision-makers make decisions quickly by providing efficient, intelligent and intuitive knowledge. The goal of this study is to provide effective knowledge for people of emergency management or decision-maker through effective technology in the appropriate form and at the right time. Firstly, when a geological disaster happened, facing the complicated emergency situation, it is capable of providing decision support information available for decision-makers through accessing to information rapidly and intelligentized analysis. Secondly, taking advantages of information analysis and showing of GIS, it is possible to ensure that the decision can be made efficiently in order by providing friendly man-machine interface and visual information, but the computer can never make decision replace decision-makers.In order to solve the above problems, this paper designed service-oriented intelligent decision support system for emergency of geohazards on the basis of reading relevant literature at home and abroad. Plan-based emergency ontology model of geohazard was constructed by using of the ontology modeling theory, on the basis of which knowledge of emergency plans of geohazards was represented formally. And then, making emergency situation information as driver, and combining with the ontology reasoning technology and space decision support technology, this research achieved seamless integration of spatial data, thematic data and knowledge of emergency plans which is required in emergency decision of geological disaster. Through these studies, this paper provided a viable solution for intelligent decision support of geohazards based on emergency plans. The key contributions of this study are as follows:(1)Emergency management and decision system of geohazards is analyzed and researched. First of all, the principle, goal and target of geohazards emergency management were understood, emergency management organization system was studied, and emergency management mechanism was analyzed from aspects of lifecycle and work phase in detail. Lifecycle of emergency management contains four steps of prevention, preparedness, response and recovery, and the main contents of the four work phases were mapped to the4-step lifecycle. Then three emergency businesses which were closely related to emergency decision-making of geohazards were analyzed further in detail, including pre-warning, disaster reporting and emergency response. Based on the analysis of emergency management system and mechanism, the characteristics and system of emergency decision-making were analyzed in detail. Much knowledge is needed by emergency decision of geohazards, so the composition, structure and characteristics of emergency decision knowledge of geohazards were analyzed. And it was pointed out that the tacit knowledge composed of know-who and know-how was important for emergency decision, and ontology modeling theory could be used of formalizing emergency decision-making knowledge based on the emergency plan. Finally, service-oriented intelligent decision support system for emergency of geohazards was proposed. And the focus in this system is to provide intelligent decision support for geohazards emergency response by combining knowledge of emergency plans and spatial information technology.(2)Plan-based emergency ontology model of geohazard(PEOMG) was constructed through ontology modeling theory. Firstly, theory, technology and method of ontology modeling were researched, including definition and classification of ontology, ontology description language, semantic web rule language and ontology construction methodology. And function of ontology in scenario of information sharing, information retrieval, knowledge service and decision support was analyzed. Then According to the analysis of geohazards emergency plans text in a number of different levels, three elements of emergency decision-making knowledge modeling based on plan were extracted, including emergency management entities, emergency actions and emergency business rules. Based on ontology modeling theory and OWL, making ABC event ontology model as the top ontology, the ontology model of emergency management entities and emergency actions were constructed by reusing the concepts and properties of ABC and extending new concepts and properties of geohazard emergency management. On the basis of the ontology model of emergency management entities and emergency actions, emergency business rules of geohazards were formalized by using SWRL. And these rules are the foundation of intelligent decision support for emergency of geohazard through the knowledge-based ontology reasoning. Finally, an application study was carried out for modelling a county-level emergency plan by using PEOMG, the consistency and effectiveness of which was validated.(3) Event-driven intelligent decision support model for emergency of geohazard was proposed, and the focus of the research was emergency situation awareness, decision-making knowledge service and reasoning and analysis of decision. Emergency situation awareness which provides real-time situation, takes an important part in decision-making process as a bridge between decision-makers and emergency environment. Firstly, the3-level model of geohazard emergency situation awareness was proposed in order to get real-time event situation for emergency decision-making. The three levels are the perception of the elements in the emergency environment, the comprehension of their meaning and the projection of their status in the near future. Then knowledge service of the emergency decision-making based on event situational information flow was studied. The main way for emergency situation awareness is the information flow of pre-warning and reporting, which has an important role for dynamic access to knowledge of emergency decision. The service descriptions for knowledge of emergency plans were provided through establishing services directory of decision-making knowledge. And the real-time information of geohazards, such as event information, situational information and spatio-temporal information, was got by parsing the information flow of pre-warning or reporting and extracting the characteristic elements. The necessary knowledge items for decision-making can be extracted through mapping between the real-time information of gehazards and concepts of emergency plan ontology model. Finally, Reasoning and analysis based on ontology and spatial information technology for geohazard emergency decision-making were studied, which was driven by the real-time situational information. On the one hand, decision-makers can get information about the grade and task of emergency response at the macro level by ontology reasoning, and to guide the emergency action according to the knowledge of human and skill. On the other hand, in order to provide intuitive basis for the processes of command and scheduling under constraints of time and resource, this study integrated spatial decision support analysis into the process of knowledge reasoning of emergency plan, which can provide intuitive information support for the real-time dispatching and plotting at the micro level in a visual form. So an intelligent decision support system was provided for emergency of geohazard by combining with advantages of these two aspects.(4)An prototype system of intelligent emergency plan for geohazard was designed and implemented in order to validate the theory of intelligent decision support model for emergency of geohazard. At first, emergency response process of regional geohazard pre-warning and monomer geological disaster were analyzed and designed by teasing out the implementation procedure of emergency plan. Then, an service-oriented system architecture was designed, and the system functions was organized based on the process of emergency plan, which achieved digital, intelligent and visual emergency management and decision support based on emergency plans. The theory and technology of intelligent decision support which combined knowledge ontology of emergency plan with spatial information technique, was validated being feasible.The main in novations and features of this study are as follows:(1)In the basis of considering geohazard emergency plans at all levels, the knowledge and technical framework required for geohazard emergency decision based on plan was analyzed, and then plan-based emergency ontology model of geohazard(PEOMG) was constructed by using OWL and SWRL. Sharing, reuse and interoperability of knowledge of emergency plan between people or between people and computers can be achieved through PEOMG. which provides a semantic coordination mechanism for emergency decision of geohazards. And ontology reasoning based on PEOMG provides a way for intelligent execution of emergency plans.(2)Event-driven intelligent decision support model for emergency of geohazard was proposed. Decision-makers can get information about the grade and task of emergency response at the macro level by knowledge reasoning based on ontology by using Jena and Pellet, which is driven by information flow of event situation. At the same time, the research integrated spatial decision support analysis into the process of knowledge reasoning of emergency plan, which can provide intuitive information for the real-time dispatching and plotting at the micro level in a visual form. So an intelligent decision support system was provided for emergency of geohazard by combining with advantages of knowledge reasoning and spatial information technology.