Study On Calculation,Prediction And Evaluation Of Carbon Emissions From Residens’ Consumption In Guangdong Province

With social economy development,residents’demand for energy and resource is increasing because of improvement of life and consumption.Carbon emissions from residents’consumption（CEC）is getting lots of attention.How to control rapid growth of CEC is becoming an important part of the energy-saving and emission reduction work.This paper calculated Guangdong province’s CEC and conducted index decomposition analysis of the direct and indirect CEC.A low-carbon community evaluation index system for Guangdong province was formulated to provide references for the government to develop carbon reduction measurements.The results in this paper have a guidance function to bring down the excessive growth on CEC and achieve universal energy conservation and emissions reduction.This paper established accounting models for the direct and indirect CEC,and conducted logarithmic mean divisia index method and structural decomposition analysis to analysis influences of relevant factors.The results showed that the direct and indirect CEC of Guangdong province were increasing along with the year,and had a obvious urban-rural dual structure.In 2015,the total amount of direct CEC in Guangdong province were 87.614million tonnes of CO_2e,and the per capita direct CEC were 0.81 tonnes of CO_2e.Per capita consumption level and population size have a positive effect on the growth of direct CEC,while energy prices and energy carbon emission factors have a negative effect.In 2012,the total amount of indirect CEC was 216.97 million tonnes of CO_2e,and the per capita indirect CEC was 2.05 tonnes of CO_2e.The negative effect of technology on indirect per capita CEC could not counteract the positive effect of consumption pattern.Based on the method of system dynamics,a population-economy-carbon emission model was established to analyze and predict the development trend of Guangdong province’s CEC from 2010 to 2030.The results showed that the per capita CEC in 2030 was 4.51 tonnes of CO_2e,of which the per capita direct and indirect CEC were 1.33 and 3.18 tonnes of CO_2e,respectively.The population aging question in Guangdong province is becoming increasingly prominent,which has a significant impact on CEC.Through the analysis of total fertility rate,resident consumption rate,resident energy consumption proportion and total energy consumption,it was found that resident energy consumption proportion and resident consumption rate had obvious effect on per capita CEC.Based on the analysis of the status and development trend of Guangdong Province’s CEC,the low-carbon community evaluation index system was formulated according to three types communities of new urban community,urban existing community and rural community.The evaluation indexes were selected from six aspects of carbon reduction performance,low carbon planning,energy consumption,low carbon traffic,environmental resources and low carbon management and life.The weight system of the evaluation index was calculated by the analytic hierarchy process method combined with monte carlo method,which could effectively reduce the subjective effects of the scoring experts and improve the accuracy of the final weight system.The result showed that the weight of the index can reduce energy consumption was relatively high,and the ranking of the index about solid waste treatment,water conservation and environmental greening were relatively low.Referring to the method of economic area division in Guangdong province,the benchmark values of the evaluation index was set up according to the Pearl River Delta and the non Pearl River Delta,respectively.And the evaluation criteria,grades and detailed rules were also formulated.By applying the evaluation system on a typical urban existing community and a typical rural community,it showed that the evaluation index system had high operability and practicability.Using the One-At-a-Time method to conduct sensitivity analysis on the results of the evaluation,the low-carbon construction direction that the community should focus on at present become clear,which could further improve the low carbon level of community.