The Impact Of Trade Openness Of Agricultural Products On China’s Agricultural Carbon Emission Performance

Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change and is also one of the important sources of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.The development of low-carbon agriculture is an important strategic measure to achieve agricultural greenhouse gas emission reduction and adapt to climate change.To develop sustainable agricultural economy,the key is the overall improvement of agricultural carbon emission performance.International trade has a very important impact on agricultural economic growth.Under the background of globalization,the impact of foreign trade policy changes on agricultural carbon emission performance is increasingly prominent.At present,the trend of "anti-globalization" is emerging in some developed countries,and the external environment of agricultural development and carbon emission management is undergoing significant changes.In this context,it is of great theoretical significance and application value to explore the impact of agricultural trade on China’s agricultural carbon emission performance.On the basis of the measurement and evaluation of agricultural carbon emission performance,this thesis makes a theoretical analysis,empirical test and policy simulation on the impact of the trade openness of agricultural products on agricultural carbon emission performance.(1)To reveal the overall change characteristics of China’s agricultural carbon emission performance,this thesis uses the method of combining SBM model and Malmquist-Luenberger index model to decompose the agricultural carbon emission performance index into technical progress,technical efficiency,pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency,and explores the structural characteristics of agricultural carbon emission performance from the dynamic changes of time sequence and regional differences.From the national level,the overall improvement rate of China’s agricultural carbon emission performance shows a downward trend,with the characteristics of stages and obvious regional differences.From a regional perspective,the performance of agricultural carbon emissions in different regions of China is significantly different,showing the law of gradual decline in coastal,central and inland areas.The decomposition results show that technological progress has the most significant contribution to improving the performance of agricultural carbon emissions,the deterioration of scale efficiency is the main reason for the decline of agricultural carbon emissions performance.(2)To explore the overall impact of trade openness of agricultural products on agricultural carbon emission performance,this thesis constructs an endogenous growth model which includes the factors such as the change of trade environment,technological progress and the performance of agricultural carbon emissions.Based on this,it analyzes that the performance of agricultural carbon emissions is affected by the factors included the change of trade environment,the production scale of farmers and the technology of emission reduction.Through the analysis of VAR model,the results also show that there is a certain equilibrium relationship and dynamic impact between agricultural products import and export trade and agricultural carbon emission performance in the long term and short term.The import and export trade of agricultural products is conducive to maintaining the long-term balance of agricultural carbon emission performance.In the short term,the export of agricultural products is a negative inhibition of agricultural carbon emission performance,and the import of agricultural products is a positive promotion of agricultural carbon emission performance.(3)To further explore the regional heterogeneity of the impact of trade openness of agricultural products on the performance of agricultural carbon emissions,this thesis constructs a threshold model to empirically test the regional differences of the impact of trade openness of agricultural productson the performance of agricultural carbon emissions.The results show that the impact of trade openness of agricultural products on the performance of agricultural carbon emissions is based on the single threshold effect of environmental regulation,human input and infrastructure investment.The different levels of environmental regulation,human input and infrastructure investment in each region are the important reasons for the regional differences in the impact of trade openness of agricultural products on the performance of agricultural carbon emissions.The appropriate regulation and investment in each region is helpful to agriculture product trade plays a positive role in agricultural carbon emission performance.(4)To reveal the impact of trade conflicts between China and the United States on the performance of agricultural carbon emissions in different regions of China,this thesis uses dynamic GTAP-E model for empirical analysis,and uses dimension reduction technology to explore the impact of agricultural trade policy changes on the agricultural development and carbon emissions in each province(city,district),so as to predict the changing trend of agricultural carbon emissions performance in each region.The results show that the cumulative GDP of China and the United States will decrease 0.023% and 0.001% respectively,the cumulative agricultural exports will decrease 0.096% and 0.331% respectively,and the cumulative carbon emissions of China and the United States will decrease 0.010% and 0.024% respectively,but due to the carbon leakage phenomenon,the world carbon emissions will only slightly decrease 0.002%.Combined with the cumulative impact of agricultural products export trade and agricultural export carbon emissions in various regions,it can be seen that the pressure to improve the performance of agricultural carbon emissions in the northern coastal,eastern coastal and southern coastal economic zones is relatively large,and the performance of agricultural carbon emissions in the southwest and middle reaches of the Yellow River economic zones has a relatively high potential to improve,and the performance of agricultural carbon emissions in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River,northwest and northeast economic zones is compared stable.The improvement of agricultural carbon emission performance is the power source of agricultural green economic growth.Agricultural products trade has a short-term and long-term impact on agricultural carbon emission performance and regional differences.The trade conflict between China and the United States will have a certain impact on regional agricultural carbon emission performance.This thesis proposes to establish a scientific and reasonable performance evaluation system of agricultural carbon emissions,formulate the development strategy of green agricultural products trade,and improve the performance of agricultural carbon emissions through appropriate regulation,differentiated investment and improvement of agricultural low-carbon production technology in each region,so as to achieve the green economic growth of agriculture.