| As the most important and basic element of economic development,population has a profound impact on economic development.Since the implementation of the family planning policy in 1982,due to the changes of fertility and mortality,the age structure of China's population has also changed significantly after a long period of time.The results of the sixth census show that the overall growth of China's population has become a "three low model" of low fertility,low mortality and low natural growth rate,and the number of the elderly population As a result,the number of children increases slowly,and the size of the working age population continues to shrink,resulting in significant daily economic benefits.Since the reform and opening up,China has made full use of abundant labor resources,vigorously developed labor-intensive industries,and created a miracle of economic growth.However,in recent years,due to the change of population age structure and the increase of labor cost,the traditional industrial model is difficult to sustain.In order to continue to maintain stable and rapid economic development,it is imperative to optimize the industrial structure.Therefore,under the realistic background of the change of population age structure and the adjustment of industrial structure in China,it is an important task for the academic circles and the government departments to study the empirical influence of the change of population age structure on the change of industrial structure,to find the direction of industrial structure reform in the change of population age structure,and to provide the basis for the formulation of population policy and the adjustment of industrial policy Subject.For the research on the influence of population age structure on industrial structure,there are few related literatures at home and abroad.From the few literatures,there are mainly two views: one is that the change of population age structure has an obstacle to the optimization of industrial structure,because the optimization and upgrading of industry requires sufficient labor resources and high-quality and high skilled talents,On the other hand,compared with developed countries,there is still a big gap in the level of labor skills,which limits the optimization and upgrading of China's industrial structure;on the other hand,the change of population age structure will promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure,because the rise of labor cost will "force" enterprises to pass capital and Technology to replace labor to cope with rising labor costs will improve labor productivity,at the same time,changes in the age structure of the population will also give birth to new economic growth points,some "sunset industries" came into being,these factors are conducive to the optimization of industrial structure.Although these studies have explained the influence of population age structure on industrial structure from a certain aspect,there are many deficiencies.From the theoretical aspect,the existing literature is scattered,and there is no systematic study on the theoretical mechanism of the impact of population age structure change on industrial structure optimization as a whole: from the empirical aspect,the impact of population age structure on industrial structure is not the same,and systematic empirical analysis should be carried out,but from the current few literature,only This paper studies the influence of population age structure on the first,second and third industries,and the measurement index of industrial structure optimization includes many categories.The influence of population age structure change on industrial structure optimization is not only reflected in the three industries,but also reflected in the influence on the upgrading and rationalization of industrial structure The conclusion is obviously one-sided;at the same time,China's vast territory,the change of population age structure in different regions has different impact on the industrial structure,and the existing relevant research has ignored the regional differences.This paper is divided into four parts.The structure is as follows:The first part mainly includes the first and second chapters.This paper mainly introduces the background,research significance,research ideas and research methods of the topic,puts forward the shortcomings of the existing research and the future research direction,and summarizes and reviews the relevant research at home and abroad.The second part,including three,four,five,six and seven chapters,is the main research content of the paper.This paper mainly introduces the theoretical basis and transmission mechanism of China's population age structure and industrial structure change.Using the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2017,using the method of sys-gmm,this paper analyzes the impact mechanism of population age structure change on the upgrading,rationalization of industrial structure,the internal and sub industries of the three industries,as well as the differences in the impact of different regions,and finally draws empirical results Inspection results.The last part is the content of the eighth chapter,mainly on the basis of the previous article,put forward specific measures and suggestions to deal with the impact of population age change on industrial structure.In the process of research,the paper combines theory and empirical analysis,using qualitative and quantitative analysis,normative analysis and empirical analysis,comparative analysis and other methods,the main conclusions are as follows:1.Young people's support ratio has a significant positive impact on the upgrading of industrial structure,especially in capital intensive industries and innovative industries.The significant positive impact of young children's support ratio on the upgrading of industrial structure only exists in the whole sample and the eastern region,while the elderly's support ratio has a significant negative impact on the upgrading of industrial structure.2.The positive effect of youth support ratio on the rationalization of industrial structure is very significant,especially in the eastern and central regions,the positive effect of children support ratio on the rationalization of industrial structure is significant in the eastern region,not significant in the central and western regions,and the effect of elderly support ratio on the rationalization of industrial structure is not significant.3.Among the three industries,the youth dependency ratio has a significant positive impact on the added value of the primary industry,the child dependency ratio has a positive correlation with the added value of the primary industry,while the elderly dependency ratio has no significant impact on the added value of the primary industry.In the secondary industry,the youth dependency ratio has a significant positive impact on the added value of the secondary industry,the child dependency ratio has a positive correlation with the added value of the secondary industry,while the elderly dependency ratio has no significant impact on the secondary industry.Furthermore,the youth dependency ratio has a significant positive impact on the mining industry,manufacturing industry and construction industry,and the positive impact on the manufacturing industry is higher than the mining industry And construction.In the tertiary industry,the youth dependency ratio has a significant positive impact on the added value of the tertiary industry,the child dependency ratio has a positive correlation with the added value of the tertiary industry,and the elderly dependency ratio has a significant positive impact on the added value of the tertiary industry.From the perspective of the tertiary industry,the youth support ratio has a significant positive impact on both producer services and non producer services,and the impact of non producer services is greater than producer services,while the impact of children support ratio on producer services is greater than non producer services.The elderly dependency ratio only has a significant positive correlation with non productive service industry,which also shows that there are significant differences in the impact of population age structure changes on industrial structure.Generally speaking,the impact of population age structure change on industrial structure change is phased and different.We should follow the trend of population age structure change,make top-level design in macro policy,explore the adjustment direction of industrial structure in population age structure change,make full use of the positive effect of population age structure on industrial structure upgrade,and promote industrial structure The structure is constantly optimized.The innovation of this paper is as follows:First,from the perspective of the overall and internal differences of industrial structure,this paper discusses the impact of population age structure changes on the upgrading of industrial structure.From the existing literature,it mainly studies the impact of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure,and this paper classifies the age structure of population in detail,and then studies its impact on the upgrading of industrial structure from different stages of population age,and subdivides the industrial structure from the perspective of the first industry,the second industry,the third industry and its subdivided industries In-depth study.Secondly,the dynamic panel model is used to study the influence of population age structure on industrial structure upgrading.The impact of population age structure change on industrial structure optimization is all-round and multi angle.The existing research is mainly from a single perspective.In this paper,by building a dynamic panel model,using panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2017,using the estimation method of sys-gmm,the corresponding regression is carried out at different levels of the country and different regions,and then comprehensively and systematically divided Analyze the influence of population age structure on the upgrading of industrial structure.Thirdly,the regional heterogeneity of the influence of population age structure on industrial structure is studied.China is a vast country with unbalanced economic development among different regions.Therefore,it is necessary to study the influence of population age structure in different regions on industrial structure.Although in the existing literature,there are also some studies that consider regional heterogeneity,but they are usually not deep enough and systematic.This paper makes up for this deficiency. |
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