| At the present stage,China is not only in the crucial period of fighting a good pollution control war,but also in the critical transition period of economic and social development.Strictly control carbon emissions and carbon intensity,substantially reduce carbon dioxide emissions,promote the coordinated development of economy,society and ecological environment,and realize the harmonious coexistence of human and nature.Industry is the largest carbon emission sector of the national economy.In order to achieve the carbon emission reduction target on schedule,it is imperative to implement carbon emission reduction and develop low-carbon industry.How to achieve the balance between industrial economic development and energy conservation and emission reduction,in order to achieve a win-win situation of industrial economic development and energy conservation and emission reduction has become an urgent problem.This paper analyzes the current situation of industrial development and energy consumption in Shenzhen.The IPCC method is used to measure industrial carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity,and analyze the current situation of industrial carbon emissions.In terms of carbon emission calculation methods,it introduces several methods,such as measurement method,material balance algorithm,model method and so on.The main research methods of carbon emission factors,such as STIRPAT model,LMDI model and SDA model,are compared and analyzed.Based on the establishment of panel vector autoregressive model(Pvar model),this paper analyzes the dynamic evolution relationship between industrial structure and carbon emissions in Shenzhen.Through the empirical analysis of the dynamic evolution relationship between industrial structure and carbon emissions in Shenzhen from 2010 to 2019,this paper uses stata14.0 software to carry out descriptive analysis,stationary test,determination of optimal lag order,generalized moment estimation,stability test,Granger causality test,impulse response function analysis and variance analysis on the model data.Then,Tapio decoupling elasticity index is introduced to analyze the decoupling relationship between industrial development and carbon emissions in Shenzhen.Based on the panel threshold model,this paper analyzes the threshold effect of industrial changes on carbon emissions in Shenzhen.Taking Shenzhen as the research object,this paper analyzes the threshold effect of industry changes on carbon emissions in Shenzhen from 2010 to 2019,and then analyzes the heterogeneity of threshold effect in different districts of Shenzhen.Based on the analysis of the economic development,carbon emission status and its influencing factors of the industrial industry,this paper analyzes the driving factors of industrial carbon emission in Shenzhen.Based on the comparison of the advantages and disadvantages of the three sub models of IDA,this paper constructs the decomposition model of driving factors of spatial differences of industrial carbon emissions based on M-R model,and analyzes the driving factors of spatial differences of industrial carbon emissions in Shenzhen.Based on the construction of super efficiency SBM model,this paper estimates the redundancy of carbon emission of industrial industry in Shenzhen from 2010 to 2019,that is,the carbon emission reduction potential of industrial industry.Combined with the decomposition results of industrial carbon emission potential and driving factors of spatial-temporal differences of carbon emission,this paper analyzes the carbon emission reduction path of industrial industries in Shenzhen and different districts.The empirical results are as follows:In the past decade,Shenzhen has achieved remarkable improvement in the quality of ecological environment while achieving high-quality economic growth,and initially explored a development path of coordinated development of economy,society and ecological environment.The total amount of industrial carbon emissions in Shenzhen showed a continuous downward trend,from 1.5492 million tons in 2010 to 8181 million tons in 2019,with a decline of 7312 thousand tons,accounting for 47.20%.The total industrial carbon emissions of all districts in Shenzhen also showed a downward trend in the time dimension,but there were large differences in the spatial dimension.The industrial carbon emissions of Nanshan District were higher than those of the other nine districts,followed by Bao’an District,Longhua District,Futian District and Longgang District,and the industrial carbon emissions of Luohu District,Yantian District,Guangming District,Pingshan District and Dapeng New District were lower.From the perspective of industrial carbon emission intensity in Shenzhen,the industrial carbon emission intensity in Shenzhen shows a continuous downward trend,from 0.03 T /10000 yuan in 2010 to 0.01 T / 10000 yuan in 2019,with a decline rate of 70.19%.Shenzhen’s green energy development strategy and industrial transformation and upgrading promote carbon emission reduction.Meanwhile,the city’s active response to climate change and increasing environmental regulation has formed a "forced" mechanism,which has a negative effect on the optimization of urban energy structure and industrial transformation and upgrading.According to the decomposition results of driving factors of industrial carbon emission growth in Shenzhen from 2010 to 2019,energy intensity effect and industry structure effect have a large degree of negative effect on the growth of industrial carbon emission in most years,and they are the more important restraining factors for the growth of industrial carbon emission in Shenzhen;energy structure effect also has a negative effect in most years,and to a certain extent In most years,the economic output effect has a positive effect on the growth of industrial carbon emissions in Shenzhen,so it is the most important factor to promote the growth of industrial carbon emissions in Shenzhen.From the perspective of industrial carbon emission potential in Shenzhen,the potential of industrial carbon emission reduction in Shenzhen will continue to decline from 2010 to 2019.Nanshan District,Futian District and Bao’an District are the top three areas of industrial carbon emission reduction potential.From the perspective of the path of industrial carbon emission reduction in Shenzhen,the path of industrial carbon emission reduction in Shenzhen is as follows: reducing the intensity of industrial energy consumption,reducing industrial economic output,improving industrial structure and optimizing energy consumption structure.Combined with the main research conclusions,this paper puts forward emission reduction path and relevant suggestions around the low-carbon development of Shenzhen industrial industry.Some suggestions on establishing and perfecting the system of laws and regulations on energy saving and emission reduction,promoting the transformation of economic growth mode to intensive mode,promoting carbonation of energy consumption structure,reducing the intensity of carbon emissions,paying close attention to the implementation of relevant supporting policies.In order to ensure that the measures or technologies with strong synergistic emission reduction effect can get timely financial support and application,we should give policy support on financing channels and financial subsidies to further promote the clean and low-carbon urban development. |
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