| Oil and gas energy and its refining and petrochemical products are the indispensable material basis for modern industrial development and people’s life.Therefore,the petroleum＆ chemical industry is very important to ensure national energy security,economic development and people’s quality of life.As the petroleum ＆ chemical industry consumes a lot of energy in the process of mining,refining,processing and manufacturing,resulting in huge carbon emissions,which has become the top priority of China’s emission reduction goals.With the increasing demand for global energy and various petrochemical products,the petroleum ＆ chemical industry is bound to face the dual pressure of economic development and energy conservation and emission reduction.Therefore,reducing the carbon intensity of the petroleum ＆ chemical industry will become the main trend of the development of the petroleum ＆ chemical industry in the future.With the adjustment of energy structure,regional structure and policies of China’s petroleum ＆ chemical industry over the years,what characteristics of the carbon intensity of the petroleum ＆ chemical industry in the evolution of time and space,which factors and means contribute more to the reduction of the carbon intensity of the petroleum ＆ chemical industry,and how to tap the potential of the reduction of the carbon intensity of the petroleum ＆ chemical industry from the perspective of regional differentiation and regional coordination,so as to achieve the new situation of high-speed development to high-quality development Under the new requirements,analyzing and solving the above problems will provide new ideas for the reduction of carbon intensity of China’s petroleum ＆ chemical industry.This paper takes the carbon intensity of petroleum ＆ chemical industry as the research object,takes four sectors of the petroleum ＆ chemical industry（oil and natural gas exploitation industry;petroleum processing,coking and nuclear fuel processing industry;chemical raw material and chemical products manufacturing industry;chemical fiber manufacturing industry）as the research scope.On the basis of sorting out the relevant literature of carbon intensity at home and abroad,based on the China carbon accounting database（CEADS）,this paper analyzes the carbon intensity of petroleum ＆ chemical industry According to the data set provided,the latest data up to August 2020,that is,16 kinds of energy consumption and carbon emission data of four industrial sectors of petroleum ＆chemical industry in 30 provinces of China from 2001 to 2017 are selected,and the temporal and spatial characteristics,spatial differences and spatial dependence characteristics in the spatiotemporal evolution of petroleum ＆ chemical industry carbon intensity are analyzed by using decoupling model,statistical analysis method and exploratory spatiotemporal data analysis method;and LMDI is used to analyze the temporal and spatial characteristics of carbon intensity evolution of petroleum ＆ chemical industry With quantile regression method,this paper analyzes the influencing factors of the spatial difference of carbon intensity in petroleum ＆ chemical industry at different time series evolution stages and different carbon intensity quantiles;uses spatial econometric model to analyze the influencing factors of petroleum ＆ chemical industry carbon intensity spatial dependence;nest different quantile response modes,spatial spillover effects and spatial-temporal evolution path,and further integrates multi-dimensional influencing factors Coupling with the spatiotemporal evolution path,the multi regional collaborative governance strategy of China’s petroleum ＆ chemical industry carbon intensity is proposed.The specific research content includes the following five parts:First,the related concepts and theoretical basis are described.The paper defines the concept of the evolution of carbon intensity and carbon intensity in petroleum ＆ chemical industry and petroleum ＆ chemical industry,expounds 3E theory,Geography Law,Spatial Spillover Theory,Spatial Externality Theory,Comparative Advantage Theory and its relationship with carbon intensity.Secondly,the paper analyzes the characteristics of the evolution of carbon intensity in petroleum ＆ chemical industry.By using the decoupling model,the decoupling state and decoupling trend between the carbon emission and the industrial economic development of petroleum ＆ chemical industry are analyzed,and the evolution characteristics of carbon intensity in petroleum ＆ chemical industry are discussed.The spatial differences and spatial dependence characteristics of the carbon intensity evolution of petroleum ＆ chemical industry in China are analyzed by statistical analysis and exploratory time-space data analysis（ESTDA）,and the visualization tools（Arcgis and Geoda）commonly used in GIS are used to visualize them.Thirdly,the influencing factors of spatial differences of carbon intensity in China’s petroleum ＆ chemical industry are analyzed.Based on the energy economy environment（3E）theory,combined with the essence of energy consumption carbon emission,the carbon intensity of petroleum ＆ chemical industry is decomposed into five factors: energy emission coefficient,energy structure,energy intensity,sector structure and regional structure by LMDI model,and it is defined as the internal influencing factor of carbon intensity of petroleum ＆chemical industry.Based on the characteristics of energy dependence,high pollution and large-scale industrialization of petroleum ＆ chemical industry,the regional energy endowment,regional foreign trade openness and regional industrialization degree are taken as three external influencing factors.Based on the advantage that LMDI can realize multi-level aggregation,the temporal changes of five influencing factors on carbon intensity of petrochemical industry in three decoupling stages,the contribution differences of 16 energy varieties to carbon intensity,the differences of contribution values of four industrial sectors to carbon intensity,and the regional differences of contribution values of various influencing factors to carbon intensity were compared and analyzed.Based on the above five endogenous factors and three exogenous factors,the panel quantile regression model of industrial carbon intensity,based on the factor endowment theory,takes per capita GDP,labor force scale and technological innovation as control variables,analyzes the degree and direction of each influencing factor on carbon intensity at different quantiles of petrochemical industry,then the driving and restricting factors under different quantile response modes are obtained.Fourthly,the influencing factors of spatial dependence of carbon intensity in China’s petroleum ＆ chemical industry are analyzed.By introducing the spatial geographic weight matrix,this paper constructs a spatial Durbin model of carbon intensity in petroleum ＆chemical industry,estimates the parameters of the model and analyzes the spillover effect,and further uses the spatial regression partial differential method to decompose the effect of explanatory variables on the explained variables into direct effect,indirect effect and total effect.The results show that the energy intensity,regional energy endowment,regional industrialization degree and regional foreign trade openness of China’s provincial petroleum＆ chemical industry have significant spatial spillover effects on the carbon intensity of petroleum ＆ chemical industry.Finally,the spatial and temporal evolution path of carbon intensity in petroleum ＆chemical industry is analyzed and different and collaborative regional governance strategy is proposed.The spatial and temporal evolution path types of carbon intensity of petroleum ＆chemical industry in 30 provinces of China are analyzed.The quantile response modes are nested with spatial spillover effect and spatiotemporal evolution path.The multidimensional influencing factors（driving factors,constraints and influencing factors with spatial spillover effect under the four quantile response modes）are further coupled with the spatiotemporal evolution path,and the low constraint is proposed The strategy of regional change of carbon intensity in petroleum ＆ chemical industry can promote the stable strategy of low carbon intensity area of petroleum ＆ chemical industry,break through the locking strategy of high carbon intensity area of petroleum ＆ chemical industry,and encourage the leap forward strategy of high carbon intensity region of petroleum ＆ chemical industry. |
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