Research On The Atmospheric Pollution Control Effect Assessment And Implementation Strategy Optimization Of The Coal-to-gas Policy

As one of the most pressing global environmental issues,climate change is plaguing countries around the world.Over the years,China’s continuous rapid economic growth has caused massive burning of fossil fuels and dramatic deterioration of air quality,and the shift from coal burning to clean energy such as natural gas has become the current focus of China’s efforts to promote air pollution control.In this context,the government has vigorously promoted the air pollution control and clean heating policy(hereinafter referred to as the coal-to-gas policy)with coal-to-gas and electricity as the core measures.However,the coal-to-gas policy promotion is a long and complicated process,the effectiveness of its air pollution control effect still has not formed a consensus,and with the local government as the main core,the interests of different policy participants are intricate and complex,which exacerbates the difficulty of optimizing the policy implementation cost while enhancing the overall economic and environmental benefits of the society under the constraint of achieving the expected effect of air pollution control.Therefore,it is necessary to optimize the implementation strategy of coal-to-gas policy on the basis of scientific assessment of the air pollution control effect of coal-to-gas policy,so as to carry out the comprehensive promotion of coal-to-gas policy in a positive and orderly manner and help China achieve "win-win" economic development and environmental control.The studies on the evaluation of the effect of coal-to-gas policy on air pollution control have not sufficiently considered the policy implementation intensity of local governments,and have not established a clear correlation path between the path of policy implementation effect and the optimization of policy implementation strategy,which makes it difficult to optimize the policy implementation cost under the premise of guaranteeing the achievement of expected environmental protection goals.In view of this,this paper takes the implementation intensity of the coal-to-gas policy as the entry point of the study,and explores the issues related to the assessment of the air pollution control effect of the coal-to-gas policy and the optimization of the implementation strategy.This paper provides theoretical and practical support for the scientific assessment of the policy governance effect and optimization of the policy implementation strategy.The main research contents of this paper are as follows:(1)A coal-to-gas policy implementation intensity measurement model based on policy text deep mining method and deep neural network natural language processing technology is constructed.Firstly,the connotation of coal gas policy implementation intensity is revealed and the process of coal gas policy implementation is analyzed;secondly,web crawler technology is used to collect and organize the local government policy texts in China,and the original corpus is divided into words,deactivated words filtered and key words extracted;again,considering the Chinese character form features,the external semantic information processed by word embedding is introduced into the topic model modeling process through the WPU mechanism,and the topic evolution model and complex network analysis methods are used to deep mine the policy text content.And a topic evolution model and a complex network analysis method are used to deeply mine the policy text content;finally,a method is proposed to extract effective keywords and their attention values using Fine-tuned RoFormer model on the basis of text recognition using integrated BiGRU model and DPCNN model,and then measure the policy implementation intensity.The results show that the central government has a strong guiding effect on the attention of local governments to the issue of coal-to-gas conversion,and the prefecture-level municipal governments are more detailed in the planning arrangement of environmental issues,and the change trend of coal-to-gas policy implementation intensity of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei governments is converging,which indicates that collaborative governance and environmental co-governance have become the main way to implement coal-to-gas policy of the three governments,and the national coal-to-gas policy implementation intensity shows spatial divergence.The public feedback on the coal-to-gas policy shows that there are some shortcomings in the previous implementation intensity and methods.(2)The control variable selection criterion and selection method are proposed,according to which the variable system and model for assessing the air pollution control effect of coal-to-gas policy with the implementation intensity are constructed.First,the control variable selection criteria based on the directional acyclic causal diagram,separation principle,and backdoor rule are developed;second,the control variable selection method integrating the improved Partialing-Elastic algorithm and Random Forest algorithm is constructed,and the control variable selection framework based on the"predictive contribution-cooccurrence factor-prior knowledge" is built.The control variable selection framework based on "predictive contribution-co-occurrence factorpriori know ledge" is constructed.By constructing a causal intermediary model,the causal effects of the paths of governance effects are identified from three aspects:energy structure,heating method,and clean technology.The results show that the coal-to-gas policy has a significant and direct suppression effect on the air pollution concentration in the pilot region,and by using satellite inversion data of 12 air pollutants and greenhouse gases,this article verify that the coal-to-gas policy has a significant synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction,but the persistence of this treatment effect is shorter,and the estimation results of the assessment model that introduces the implementation intensity as the core variable indicate that the treatment effect of the policy is more obvious and that the policy triggered a spatial transmission effect among cities,suggesting that previous studies may have underestimated the environmental benefits of the coal-to-gas policy.(3)An optimization model of coal-to-gas policy implementation strategy portfolio selection adjustment considering the behavioral characteristics of policy participating subjects is constructed First,we analyze the behavioral characteristics of each participant in the coal-to-gas policy,propose the causal effect of the governance effect path of the coal-to-gas policy as the environmental effect equity coefficient of the alternative strategies,and introduce the strategy combination selection adjustment mechanism to divide the strategy implementation process into multiple stages,and then construct the implementation strategy combination selection adjustment optimization model that take s into account the governance effect.Second,considering the existence of multiple uncertainties in the model,a stochastic hierarchical scenario generation and reduction method is proposed to reconstruct the original model into a stochastic optimization problem.Finally,the original problem is characterized as an optimal path planning problem,and the improved Dijkstras algorithm and its solution process are proposed for the model characteristics,and the algorithm is simulated in a system containing government,energy supplying enterprises,energy consuming enterprises,and residential side.The results show that the amount of government subsidies is lower than that of the typical scenario,and there are more options to choose the combination of implementation strategies,more dynamic adjustment behaviors in each stage,and there are significant differences in the tendency of each participant to choose the combination of implementation strategies,and the selection results are more sensitive to the environmental management requirements,the government’s subsidy policy,and their own economic strength.The sensitivity of energy supply enterprises to government subsidies is the highest.(4)A simulation model of the effect of coal-to-gas policy implementation strategy including multi-region and multi-sector is constructed to provide a reference for future coal-to-gas policy revision and improvement.First,based on the general equilibrium theory,the modeling assumptions and basic ideas of the single-region multi-sector and multi-region multi-sector models are described.Second,the single-region multi-sector and multi-region multi-sector environmental stochastic dynamic general equilibrium models are constructed respectively,which include representative household sector,energy producer sector,clean intermediate goods production sector,polluting intermediate goods production sector,final goods production sector,government department Finally,we simulate the responses of each sector in the economic system to the shocks of the coal-to-gas policy implementation strategy.The results show that in the single-region model,if the implementation strategy is not implemented,the coal-to-gas policy shocks play a significant role in causing changes in coal production and prices,and will inevitably lead to a decline in overall social welfare in the short run.In the multi-regional model,if the implementation strategy is implemented,the impact of the implementation strategy has a crowding-out effect on the region,and the spillover effect of the policy pilot area has a significant negative impact on the pollution stock in the external region.The improvement in the level of social welfare indicates that the government’s approach of replacing the quotas released by the energy transition progress with advanced capacity is correct and necessary.This paper considers the implementation intensity of coal-to-gas policy,evaluates the policy governance effect,optimizes the policy implementation strategy,and simulates the effect of the policy implementation strategy,which fully reflects the realistic needs of air pollution control,coal-to-gas policy implementation and energy structure transformation in China,and is of great theoretical value and practical significance for scientific and comprehensive management of local government policy implementation intensity and mode,accurate evaluation of the policy air pollution control effect and its path of action,compression of implementation costs while guaranteeing the achievement of the expected policy goals,and simulation of the effect of the policy implementation strategy on economic benefits and social welfare.It is of great theoretical value and practical significance for the scientific and integrated management of local government policy implementation intensity and methods,the accurate assessment of policy air pollution control effects and pathways,the compression of implementation costs while ensuring the achievement of the expected policy goals,and the simulation of the impact of policy implementation strategies on economic benefits and social welfare.The policy text mining method and policy implementation intensity measurement model framework proposed in this paper extend the research related to government environmental governance regulation.and the constructed policy governance effect assessment model,policy implementation strategy optimization model and policy implementation strategy effect simulation model enrich the results related to policy effect assessment and implementation strategy optimization,which can strongly support the further improvement and continuous promotion of coal-to-gas policy and help China It can support the further improvement and sustainable promotion of coal-to-gas policy,help China to control air pollution.improve air quality and enhance the enthusiasm of demand-side participants,and also has some reference value for the management of other environmental policies.